Forecast of the possibility of super typhoon formation in the coming time

Khánh Minh |

According to forecasters, high sea surface temperatures are still favorable for further storms to explode into super typhoons.

Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton - which devastated many areas in the southeastern United States - have opened a particularly busy tropical storm period.

The Atlantic hurricane season began in a worrying manner. On July 2, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 super typhoon to form in the Atlantic Ocean according to records dating back to 20.

Unusually warm Atlantic temperatures combined with changes in regional weather patterns are seen as a favorable conduit for hurricane formation.

Across the main development zone of the storm - an area stretching from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean - sea surface temperatures are about 1 degree Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, according to BBC analysis of data from the European Climate Agency.

Atlantic temperatures have been rising over the past decade, largely due to climate change and a natural weather pattern known as the Atlantic Multi-Decade Schwing.

Starting with Hurricane Helene, six Atlantic tropical storms have formed in quick succession.

fueled by warm waters and now more favorable atmospheric conditions these storms are intensifying, with five becoming hurricanes.

Four of these five storms have experienced so-called rapid intensification, with maximum sustained winds of at least 56 km/h in 24 hours.

Historical data shows that on average, only about 1 in 4 storms are intensifying rapidly.

Rapid intensification can be especially dangerous, as this rapid increase in wind power could give the community less time to prepare.

Hurricane Milton was stronger than 144 km/h in 24 hours and was one of the fastest-increasing storms ever recorded, according to BBC data analysis from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Scientists at the World Weather Attribution found that winds and rain from both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton have worsened as a result of climate change.

"One thing that this hurricane season clearly illustrates is the impact of climate change that is present right now," second Garner from Rowan University in the US explained.

For the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season (which runs from June 1 to November 30), high sea surface temperatures remain favorable for further storms to become super typhoons.

There is also a chance of La Nina appearing in the Pacific Ocean - a weather pattern that often promotes Atlantic hurricane formation because it affects wind patterns.

But further storms will depend on other atmospheric conditions, which are less easy to predict.

In any case, this year's Atlantic hurricane season has highlighted the fact that warm ocean waters caused by climate change are increasing the likelihood of the strongest super typhoons and this is expected to continue as the world warms even more, according to Kevin Trenberth, a scholar at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Khánh Minh
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