The 2024 White House race is entering its final hours, with the final New York Times and Siena College US election poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia while former President Donald Trump has erased her lead in Pennsylvania and maintained his advantage in Arizona.
Polls show Harris with narrow leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona. The two candidates are in a tight race in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
However, the results in all seven states were within the margin of sampling error, meaning no candidate had a solid lead in any of them.
Still, the New York Times notes, there are signs that voters who cast ballots closer to Election Day are leaning toward Harris. Among the 8% of voters surveyed who recently decided to vote, Harris was supported by 55% while Trump was supported by 44%.
The New York Times and Siena College poll comes as more than 70 million Americans have already cast ballots, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.
About 40% of those surveyed in the New York Times/Siena College 2024 US Election Poll across seven states said they had already voted early. Polls showed Harris with those voters, with an 8-point lead over her opponent. Meanwhile, Trump had an advantage among voters who said they were likely to vote but had not yet voted.
Donald Trump has a strong showing in Pennsylvania, where Harris has had a 4% advantage in every previous New York Times/Siena College poll in the state since she entered the race.
The race between the two candidates in Pennsylvania is currently quite balanced, showing that competition is increasingly fierce in Pennsylvania - a battleground state that strategists in both campaigns believe can change this year's election.
Early voting was particularly strong in North Carolina, where more than half of registered voters had already cast their ballots. Harris won the state among early voters by 8 percentage points.
The only state where the poll showed Donald Trump winning among those who had already voted was Arizona. 46% of voters in the state had cast their ballots, and Trump had 50% support, compared to 46% for Harris.
The poll also shows a shift in voters’ priorities in the final stretch of the presidential race. The economy remains the top concern for voters, but in states like Wisconsin, where Harris has always had an advantage, abortion is almost as important as the economy. In Arizona, where Trump leads, immigration continues to be a key issue driving voters’ choices.
