The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced last week that the weak La Nina phenomenon of this winter is officially weakening and gradually ending.
Climate forecasters believe that the world may experience a short ENSO neutral period (i.e., neither El Nino nor La Nina), before a strong El Nino appears at the end of this year.
Initially, scientists only mentioned the possibility of the appearance of super El Nino. However, recently, some experts have begun to talk about a scenario even stronger than "Godzilla El Nino".
The WMO community will closely monitor climate conditions in the coming months to support decision-making. The most recent El Nino, in the 2023-2024 period, is one of the 5 strongest waves ever recorded and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024" - WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said.
The term Godzilla El Nino appeared more than a decade ago when scientists noticed signs of forming an extremely strong El Nino wave in the Pacific Ocean.
NASA scientist Bill Patzert came up with this name to describe the enormous scale of the weather impact of this phenomenon. This name also immediately reminded many people of the historic El Nino of 1997-1998.
Scientists at that time were preparing for a winter with storms "rare in many generations". That was the winter that caused a series of extreme weather phenomena on the west coast of the United States. San Francisco recorded the highest rainfall in 100 years. Los Angeles received equivalent rainfall for the whole year in just one month. Snowfall in many areas of the western United States was twice as high as the average.
It is very difficult to predict a historic winter when spring has not yet ended, 2 seasons ahead of schedule.
There is no guarantee that that scenario will happen. However, experienced surfers say: When scientists mention winter like 1997-1998 or 2015-2016, it usually means that big waves will appear more in California and Hawaii, USA.
According to Mr. Kevin Wallis from the Surfline wave forecasting platform, there are no two identical El Nino waves.
Not every El Nino causes a big impact. But when El Nino is strong or very strong, we often see a clearer impact," he said.
According to him, the clearest sign of stronger sea waves often appears in the northern Pacific, especially the California and Hawaii areas.
However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has not yet made a forecast about the possibility of extremely strong El Nino.
In the March 9 update, the agency mainly focused on the weakening current La Nina. NOAA forecasts the world will move to a neutral ENSO state and last at least until May-June 2026.
From the end of summer onwards, there is a 50-60% chance of El Nino forming, but the uncertainty of forecast models is still high. Forecasts at this time of year are usually less accurate," the forecast bulletin stated.
In other words, the world will have to continue to closely monitor climate signs in the coming months to see if the forecast of a "Godzilla El Nino" becomes a reality.
