Based on the consequences of previous strong El Nino waves, super El Nino 2026 could also change ecosystems for decades to come.
The most recent super El Nino has changed the weather and economy around the world, leaving prolonged disruptions even after the Pacific Ocean cooled down.
Previous super El Nino spells were only a reference basis for the upcoming one, because no 2 El Nino spells caused the same impact.
However, in many aspects, the world's resilience to super El Nino this time has better aspects but also weaker aspects compared to the waves that occurred in the periods 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Notably, some computer models show that the upcoming El Nino may exceed the intensity of all the above waves, becoming the strongest phenomenon at least since 1950. Although this is not the scenario with the highest probability of occurring, it is the biggest uncertainty about the impact of this super El Nino when the world will not know exactly the maximum power until the phenomenon actually occurs.
Humanity's ability to respond is now better thanks to being able to detect El Nino early, before the most serious impacts occur.
The impact of a strong El Nino may include floods in some areas, while droughts, prolonged heat and forest fires devastate other places. Crop failure is a common phenomenon in some countries during El Nino, along with coral bleaching and mass deaths due to abnormally rising sea temperatures.
Climate scientists warn that, because El Nino is accompanied by a vast sea area with unusually hot temperatures and most of this heat is transmitted into the atmosphere, the global climate is almost certain to record a record hot year during the time of strong El Nino.
Studies of El Nino events in history, especially the "El Nino of the century" phenomenon in 1997-1998, show that the economic damage of this phenomenon could reach trillions of USD globally, although some countries may also benefit economically thanks to warmer winters or other changes in weather patterns.
Research published in the scientific journal Science in 2023 shows that El Nino may reduce national economic growth for many years, even after the unusually hot sea area has cooled down.
Researchers estimate that the El Nino phenomenon in the 1982-1983 period caused damage of about 4,100 billion USD in global income, while the 1997-1998 period caused damage of about 5,700 billion USD. In terms of intensity, the 1997-1998 period may be a useful reference model for the upcoming El Nino. These losses have lasted in many countries for about 5 years, including the time El Nino occurred and the period afterwards.
