The question is whether the administration of US President Donald Trump will let the ship pass, or block it in the middle of the Caribbean Sea?
According to maritime tracking data and analysis by maritime intelligence agency Kpler, the Sea Horse ship flying the Hong Kong (China) flag is expected to dock at the Cuban port in early March, carrying nearly 200,000 barrels of fuel, likely diesel. Goods are believed to originate from Russia, although both Moscow and Havana have not officially confirmed it.
This event raises the risk of a new confrontation between Russia and the US, in the context that Cuba is struggling under a real energy embargo from Washington.
Although no official blockade has been announced, US deterrent measures and large-scale naval deployments in the Caribbean have caused many oil tankers to change direction in the middle of their journey.
At the end of January, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a state of national emergency related to Cuba, warning of tariffs on any country that supplies oil to this island nation.
Cuba has been subject to a trade embargo for more than 60 years. New measures quickly took effect as a deterrent: Mexico stopped exporting oil to Cuba despite public concerns from President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Some fuel tankers changed direction while on their way to Cuba. The Mia Grace left Lomé (Togo) in mid-January with hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil believed to be purchased by the state-owned Cubametales through European intermediaries but then suddenly changed course to the Dominican Republic.
Another ship, the Ocean Mariner, also turned around when the US Coast Guard appeared near Cuban waters.
Meanwhile, Caracas - once the main oil supplier to Havana, accounting for about 58% of 2023 imports - no longer plays this role after President Nicolas Maduro's government collapsed in January. The loss of supply from Venezuela has put Cuba in a serious shortage situation.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez accused the US measures of violating international law and warned of the risk of a humanitarian crisis.
The reality is very tense: More than 80% of Cuba's electricity is produced from old oil-fired power plants from the Soviet era. Fuel loss means widespread power outages, in some places power is cut off for up to 20 hours a day. Hospitals postpone surgery, schools close, public services are disrupted, tourism - the main source of foreign currency - is struggling due to lack of air fuel.
According to estimates by expert Vortexa Rohit Rathod, Cuba's fuel reserves may run out by the end of March. Kpler data shows that in January Cuba did not import any oil shipments - for the first time since 2015 - and has only received one shipment in 2026.
For Moscow, Sea Horse's journey is an opportunity to expand its influence closely to the US, in the context that Russia is looking for new markets for energy exports due to Western sanctions.
The Kremlin affirmed its readiness to support its long-time ally, and said that Russia-US trade is currently negligible, so there is less risk of additional retaliation.
If Russian oil tankers to Cuba are allowed to unload goods, it could pave the way for subsequent trips, weakening the deterrence of US sanctions. Conversely, if Washington decides to prevent it, Russia-US tensions are at risk of escalating.
The fate of Sea Horse is therefore not just a story about an oil tanker, but a new test for the will and limits of both sides in the ongoing geopolitical game.
