"The problems with winter preparation in Europe continue to get worse. Insufficient gas reserves in underground storage facilities (UGS) could affect gas supplies to consumers in the event of strong or prolonged cold air," said Russian gas giant Gazprom.
The withdrawal of net gas from underground containers in Europe will take place for the first time this fall and winter from October 1 and 2. Europe's UGS underground warehouses have only reached 82.7% of their reserves and raising their reserves to 90% as set is unfeasible, Gazprom noted.
As of October 4, the EU's gas reserves reached 82.75%, equivalent to 944 terawatts per hour, down from 94.32% last year and the lowest level since 2021, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Gas reserves even fell below 34% in March 2025, the lowest level since 2022.
According to analysts and available data, Europe will need to import up to 160 more shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this winter due to reduced reserves and Russian gas imports via pipelines as well as gas imports from Algeria. This will increase Europe's dependence on gas from the US.
LNG imports will skyrocket from last year's 660 to 820 this year, equivalent to 48% of the EU's total gas consumption. Analysts predict the EU's demand this winter will be around 16 billion cubic meters.
A modern LNG carrier has an average capacity of about 0.1 billion m3 of liquefied gas.
A decade ago, LNG only met 10% of the EU's gas demand and this share increased to 23% in 2021, a year before the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out and the EU cut its imports of Russian gas via pipeline.
In 2022, US LNG saved Europe from a serious gas crisis. However, this also increases Europe's dependence on US LNG, leading to insecurity for the continent as the US increases tariffs on trading partners.
Energy Aspects analysts said that the US will supply about 70% of Europe's LNG in the 2026-2029 period as the EU plans to ban Russian LNG from 2027 and Russian gas from 2028. US gas exports and output are skyrocketing, while growth from other suppliers will be limited.
"Our dependence on the US will increase," the CEO of a major European energy company said, noting that there are few other options for buying gas.
Florence Schmit - energy strategist at Rabobank - assessed that reduced gas supply via pipeline and growing dependence on LNG will require the extraction and pumping of gas into much stronger reserves in the future.
According to Kpler, by the end of this winter, in March 2026, gas reserves could fall to a seven-year low of 29% of reserve capacity. Energy Aspects believes that low reserves will significantly increase risks to EU gas prices in 2026.
