Many reputable international newspapers recently simultaneously issued positive forecasts about Vietnam's economic prospects, notably the possibility that Vietnam will surpass Thailand in total nominal GDP in the next few years.
Nominal GDP is often used to measure the market value of all goods and services produced in a given year. This is the GDP value calculated by the current value of goods and services, not adjusted for inflation.
Nikkei Asia (Japan) newspaper commented that Vietnam is on track to surpass Thailand in nominal GDP by 2026, thanks to high economic growth and the implementation of a series of large-scale public infrastructure projects.
According to Nikkei, if growth is on schedule, Vietnam's nominal GDP could reach about 500-600 billion USD in the period 2026-2027, surpassing Thailand and approaching the scale of major economies in the region. Vietnam's GDP per capita at that time is forecast to exceed the 5,000 USD mark, approaching Indonesia's current level.
Sharing the same view, Thailand Business News forecasts that Vietnam may surpass Thailand in total nominal GDP by 2026 or at the latest 2027. The article argues that this shift is of historical significance to Southeast Asia, reflecting a "generational change" in the regional economic structure.
According to the analysis of the Thai newspaper, Vietnam's rise is driven by a wave of production explosion, while Thailand is facing many structural difficulties, from an aging population to slowing growth.
The experts quoted emphasized that Vietnam's success is not accidental. This is the result of a strong investment strategy in infrastructure, from roads, seaports to airports, along with the advantage of a young population - a factor that Thailand is increasingly difficult to maintain.
Abundant labor resources help Vietnam continue to maintain competitiveness in key manufacturing industries such as textiles, electronics and the processing industry.
Bangkok Post commented that Vietnam has become a "rising star" of the region, attracting foreign investment capital at an increasing rate and gradually reshaping the investment context in Southeast Asia.
The Vietnamese government is highly appreciated for promoting investment to expand production capacity and exports. This strategy has brought clear results when many foreign corporations, including Thai businesses, continuously expand their operations in Vietnam.
In addition, with demographic advantages that have lasted for decades, Vietnam is assessed to have an advantage of sustainable growth compared to Thailand in the medium and long term.
