According to a survey at 11:25 p.m. on February 19 (Vietnam time), WTI oil prices increased by 0.43 USD/barrel (0.6%), to 72.26 USD/barrel. Brent oil prices also increased by 0.42 USD/barrel (0.55%), to 76.26 USD/barrel.
According to Reuters, oil prices increased slightly on Wednesday due to concerns about disruptions in oil supply in the US and Russia, as well as the market waiting for clearer information about peace negotiations in Ukraine.
"The psychologically important $70 price level seems to be holding firm," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. This was partly due to the Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's oil pumping station and concerns that cold weather in the US could limit supply."
He also noted that there is speculation that OPEC+ may decide to postpone the plan to increase supply in April, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, along with easing sanctions on Russia, is unlikely to significantly increase Russian oil flows.
"We believe that Russia's crude oil production is limited by OPEC+'s production target of 9 million barrels/day, not by current sanctions, which only affect destinations without reducing oil exports," they said in a report.
For the domestic petroleum market, the petroleum price forecasting model using machine Learning of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that in the operating period on February 20, 2025, gasoline prices may increase by 0.6 - 2.2% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.
According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, VPI's data analysis expert, the gasoline price forecast model using the artificial neural network model ( sp) and the supervised learning algorithm (Supervised Learning) in VPI's machine Learning predicts that retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 453 VND (2.2%) to 21,043 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only increase slightly by 0.6% to 21,196 VND/liter.
Meanwhile, VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease. Of which, diesel may decrease by 0.4% to VND 18,994/liter, kerosene may decrease by 0.5% to VND 19,373/liter, and mazut may decrease by 1.5% to VND 17,503/kg.
VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.
In the adjustment period of February 13, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 156 VND/liter to 20,598 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline increased by 146 VND/liter to 21,074 VND/liter.
Prices of oil products have also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND19,573/liter (up VND19/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND19,53/liter (up VND59/liter); mazut is priced at VND17,779/kg (up VND425/kg).
