Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (January 11) maintained the price level of the weekend closing session, recording a decrease compared to the peak set in the middle of the week. After a series of hot days approaching the historical milestone of 100,000 VND/kg, profit-taking pressure and adverse developments from the world have caused purchasing prices to turn around and cool down. Currently, the average coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces is trading around the 97,600 VND/kg mark.
In Lam Dong province, the purchasing price is currently at the lowest level in the region at 97,200 VND/kg. In other key localities such as Dak Lak and Gia Lai, the price of crushed coffee beans is purchased by agents at 97,500 VND/kg.
Dak Nong province (old) continued to maintain the leading position in price, but also adjusted to the level of 97,800 VND/kg. Looking back at the dien bien (developments) of last week (January 5 - 11), the market witnessed emotional trading sessions when prices at times jumped to 99,200 VND/kg on January 7, but then lost about 1,400 - 1,600 VND/kg on weekends, causing expectations of the 3-digit price level to be temporarily delayed.
World coffee prices
The international market closed the last trading session of the week (early Saturday morning Vietnam time) with red color covering both futures exchanges, reflecting the cautious sentiment of investors.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 had a deep drop of 14.70 cents (equivalent to 3.94%), closing the session at 357.65 cents/lb. This sell-off took place after the latest meteorological forecasts showed that rain will appear in central Brazil next week, reducing concerns about prolonged drought. In addition, the increase in the USD index (DXY) to a 4-week high also put pressure on commodity prices.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices also could not avoid the general downward trend. The March 2026 delivery term decreased by 25 USD (0.63%), closing at 3,903 USD/ton. The January 2026 spot delivery term decreased by 32 USD, down to 4,075 USD/ton. Robusta's decline was doubled by the decline of Arabica and information about abundant supply from Vietnam. According to the latest data, coffee exports in 2025 of our country increased by 17.5% compared to the same period, reaching 1.58 million tons, partly relieving the market's "thirst" for goods.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Summarizing last week, Vietnamese coffee's efforts to conquer the 100,000 VND/kg mark faced major obstacles from macro and technical factors.
The fact that Arabica prices fell nearly 4% in the last session of the week is a warning sign about changes in market sentiment, shifting from concerns about shortages to cautiously observing the actual weather in Brazil.
Although short-term downward pressure is present, the price base is still supported by low inventory on the ICE exchange. Specifically, Robusta inventory, although slightly recovering to 4,278 lots, is still at a historical low, which will prevent prices from falling too deeply.
