Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (January 7) dispelled all doubts about yesterday's slight correction with an impressive price increase session. Strong buying power from warehouses pushed purchasing prices in key Central Highlands regions to increase simultaneously by 1,000 VND/kg, bringing the price level to an unprecedented high in this crop year. Currently, the regional average price has reached 99,100 VND/kg, only a very slim distance away from the 100,000 VND mark.
Today's focus of attention is on Dak Nong (old), a locality that has risen to lead the market with a record purchasing price of 99,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND compared to the previous session. In the two "capitals" of Dak Lak and Gia Lai, the trading atmosphere is also extremely vibrant when dealers listed the buying price at a round level of 99,000 VND/kg, simultaneously increasing by 1,000 VND/kg.
Even in Lam Dong - where prices are usually lower - the increase is not inferior. Coffee prices here have climbed to 98,500 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
World coffee prices
On the international market, the electronic board is brilliantly green with a very strong increase range, especially on the New York exchange. Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 have had a "standing" increase session of 14.50 cents (equivalent to 4.04%), closing at the highest level in the past 4 weeks at 373.85 cents/lb. Long-term futures such as May and July also recorded an increase of over 3%, reaching 353.05 cents/lb and 344.55 cents/lb respectively.
The main driving force for the increase in Arabica is concerns about the weather in Brazil. A report from Somar Meteorologia said that the Minas Gerais region - the largest Arabica growing area in Brazil - only received 47.9 mm of rain last week, equivalent to 67% of the historical average. In addition, the rise in the Brazilian Real to the highest level in 1 month against the USD also caused farmers in this country to restrict selling, reducing the actual supply in the market.
Responding to the upward momentum from New York, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange also recovered strongly. The March 2026 delivery term increased by 89 USD (2.27%), re-establishing the important milestone of 4,000 USD to close at 4,007 USD/ton. Notably, the January 2026 spot delivery term increased by 94 USD, reaching 4,157 USD/ton, continuing to widen the price reversal gap (backwardation), affirming that spot demand is still very urgent.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is witnessing a fierce "competition" between fundamentally opposing factors. In the downward direction, pressure from Vietnam's export information surged. According to the Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in 2025 increased by 17.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 1.58 million tons. This figure in theory will ease concerns about Robusta's supply shortage.
However, the price reaction in today's session shows that the market is paying more attention to future weather risks in Brazil. Concerns about drought affecting the next Arabica crop are overwhelming current supply information. In addition, although Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange have recovered to a 2.5-month high (457,031 bags), this number is still not enough to reassure speculators against unpredictable weather fluctuations.
It is predicted that in the coming days, the 100,000 VND/kg mark in the domestic market will almost be verified. With Robusta London standing firm above 4,000 USD/ton and Arabica New York breaking the resistance of 370 cents/lb, the upward momentum of Vietnamese coffee prices is being strongly supported. However, investors need to be wary of strong fluctuations when prices approach the historical peak, because profit-taking pressure from financial funds can appear at any time.
