Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market entered the Sunday holiday with a calm state, the purchase price at agents did not have new fluctuations compared to the last session of last week. Currently, the average price level in the Central Highlands region is anchored at 96,000 VND/kg, showing the market's great accumulation efforts after a week of fluctuations.
Looking back at the developments in the past 7 days, the market has experienced contrasting levels of emotions:
Early week (February 23 - February 24): Domestic coffee prices suffered a huge shock when prices "evaporated" from 3,200 - 4,100 VND/kg in just one session, pushing prices deeply back to the 93,000 VND/kg zone due to pressure from the forecast of a record crop in Brazil.
Mid-week (February 25 - February 26): Recorded a spectacular comeback when it jumped back to more than 2,500 VND, then added 1,000 VND to re-establish the mark of 97,000 VND/kg thanks to the support from the Real Brazil exchange rate.
Weekend (February 27 - February 28): The market enters a state of narrow tug-of-war and sideways to preserve recovery achievements.
Currently, Dak Lak, Dak Nong (old) and Gia Lai are maintaining the same level of 96,000 VND/kg, while Lam Dong is hovering at the threshold of 95,500 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
On the international front, both the London and New York exchanges have just experienced a "fire test" week under pressure from abundant supply reports. Arabica prices closed the week at 280.75 cents/lb, heavily affected by the recovery of inventories on the ICE exchange to a 4-month high. In addition, rainfall in Brazil reaching 138% of the historical average continues to be a factor putting pressure on this exchange.
For Robusta, the price for May 2026 delivery closed at 3,624 USD/ton. Although at one point it hit a 6.5-month low, Robusta found support from the decline in Brazil's exports in January (down 42.4%) and output in Colombia down 34%. However, the recovery momentum still faced a major resistance from Vietnam's January export data, which jumped 38.3%.
Market outlook
Summarizing last week, it can be seen that coffee prices are in a "low" information area when forecasts about the record season of 180 million bags of Rabobank or 66.2 million bags of Brazil have been partly absorbed by the market. The fact that domestic prices stand firm above the 96,000 VND/kg mark shows that current consumption demand is still a good support, preventing sell-offs following the decline of the futures exchange.
It is predicted that in the new week, the market will continue to be in a state of stalemate to establish a clearer trend for March. Factors such as inventory situation in consuming countries and fluctuations of the Brazilian Real will be key unknowns that determine whether the price can return to the 10,000 VND mark or not.
