Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, February 24, continued to adjust slightly down after a "free fall" of more than 4,000 VND in yesterday's session. Purchasing agents in the Central Highlands region reduced prices from 300 - 400 VND/kg, bringing the average price of the whole region to 93,400 VND/kg. Market sentiment is still very cautious as the support level of 93,000 VND is being seriously challenged.
Specific fluctuations in localities:
Dak Nong (old): Reduced by 400 VND, currently anchored at the highest level in the region of 93,500 VND/kg.
Dak Lak: Recorded price of 93,400 VND/kg after decreasing by 300 VND compared to yesterday.
Gia Lai: Purchasing at 93. 300 VND/kg, down 300 VND.
Lam Dong: Continuing to be the lowest level in the region when reducing by another 400 VND, falling back to 92.800 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The first trading session of the week witnessed a simultaneous decline on both New York and London exchanges due to increasingly optimistic global supply prospects.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 delivery futures fell another 31 USD (0.86%), closing the session at 3,560 USD/ton. This is the lowest level of Robusta in the past 6.5 months. The biggest pressure came from Vietnam when exports in January jumped 38.3% compared to the same period. At the same time, Brazil's Robusta output in 2026 is forecast to increase by 6.3%, reaching a record 22.1 million bags, also contributing to pressure.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures closed at 278.05 cents/lb, down sharply 7.65 cents (2.68%). Arabica prices were negatively affected after a Somar Meteorologia report showed that the Minas Gerais region (Brazil) received up to 62.8 mm of rain last week, reaching 138% of the historical average. The prospect of Brazil's record season of 66.2 million bags in 2026 continues to make speculators sell off.
Market outlook and coffee price forecast
The coffee market is under pressure from the "double blow" of favorable weather and forecasts of a sharp increase in future production. The fact that rainfall in Brazil exceeded historical levels has dispelled concerns about drought, while Vietnam - the leading Robusta producer - is stepping up sales to the market with expected output to increase by 6% in the next crop year.
In the short term, domestic coffee prices will continue to be under adjustment pressure and are likely to retest the bottom of 92,000 VND/kg. The only support at this time is the decrease in supply from Colombia (down 34% in January) and the January export report of Brazil's decrease. However, these factors are not strong enough to reverse the current downward trend.
