Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market in the morning session of May 13th, 2026 recorded a slight downward adjustment in most key growing areas of the Central Highlands.
After the explosive increase on May 12, 2026, bringing the average price to the threshold of 88,100 VND per kg, today's price has retreated to the threshold of 87,900 VND per kg, equivalent to a decrease of 100 VND.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price decreased by 200 VND, bringing the price to 88,000 VND per kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both recorded a decrease of 100 VND, currently fluctuating at 87,000 VND per kg.
Lam Dong area witnessed a decrease of 200 VND, pushing coffee prices down to 87.3 million VND per kg. Meanwhile, pepper still maintained a stable sideways trend at 143,000 VND per kg and the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank was anchored at 26,099 VND.
World coffee prices
Red color covered both international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session as the USD index rose sharply. On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices for July 2026 delivery fell 2.15 cents, equivalent to 0.76%, closing the session at 280.15 cents per pound.
Similarly, the London exchange recorded Robusta prices for the same term falling 22 USD, equivalent to 0.63%, falling to the threshold of 3,482 USD per ton. Despite pressure from the exchange rate, the decline of coffee was still significantly curbed by inventory shortages at standard reserves.
Arabica inventories monitored by ICE have fallen to a 2.5-month low of 41,731 sacks, while Robusta inventories have even reached the lowest level in the past 2 years with only 3,664 lots left. In addition, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remains a price supporting factor when it sharply increases sea transportation costs, insurance and global fertilizer prices.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of a long-time market reporter, the current coffee price situation is strongly influenced by the record crop prospects from Brazil.
Reputable organizations such as StoneX and Marex Group both maintained their forecast for a global surplus crop of up to 10 million sacks in 2026, when Brazil's output is expected to reach 75.9 million sacks.
In Vietnam, the export momentum in the first 4 months of the year grew impressively by 15.8%, reaching 810,000 tons, also contributing to easing concerns about short-term Robusta supply shortages. However, signals about Brazil's green coffee exports sharply decreasing from 10% to 31% in March and the USDA report on inventory at the end of the 2025. 2026 crop year decreasing by 5.4% are still variables that could trigger technical recovery.
Forecast in the short term, coffee prices will continue to fluctuate fiercely around the 87,000 to 89,000 VND per kg range as the market holds its breath waiting for new signals from the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and harvest progress in South America.
