Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (January 16) recorded a prolonged increase. Coffee purchasing prices in key areas of the Central Highlands increased from 500 - 800 VND/kg. The average coffee price in the whole region has now climbed to 99,100 VND/kg, the highest level since the beginning of the crop year.
The focus of today's market belongs to Dak Nong province (old). This locality recorded a "skyrocket" increase of 800 VND/kg, bringing purchasing prices to jump to the leading position nationwide at 99,300 VND/kg. In the two "capitals" Dak Lak and Gia Lai, coffee prices also simultaneously increased by 500 VND/kg, officially hitting the mark of 99,000 VND/kg.
Even Lam Dong - where prices are usually lowest - also recorded an increase of 600 VND/kg, bringing the transaction price to 98,500 VND/kg. With this increase, the 100,000 VND/kg mark is currently less than 1,000 VND away from the market.
World coffee prices
The international market has just experienced an emotional trading session (early morning of January 16 Vietnam time). At the beginning of the session, pressure from the strengthening USD (DXY index reached a 6-week peak) caused prices to bear downward pressure. However, the situation completely changed at the end of the session thanks to weather factors.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices had a spectacular acceleration to retake the important milestone of 4,000 USD. At the end of the session, the March 2026 futures contract increased by 48 USD (equivalent to 1.21%), closing at 4,003 USD/ton. The January 2026 spot futures also increased by 48 USD, maintaining a high of 4,203 USD/ton.
The New York Stock Exchange is also not inferior when Arabica regained its green color. The price of the March 2026 contract increased by 2.10 cents (0.59%), closing at 358.10 cents/lb. The main driving force for this reversal is the latest weather forecast updates showing that the possibility of rain in Brazilian coffee growing areas next week has decreased significantly. This revives concerns about drought in Minas Gerais – which previously only received 29% of the historical average rainfall.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Today's session developments show that the market is extremely sensitive to weather information. Despite adverse factors such as the USD increasing in price or Vietnam's exports increasing sharply (17.5%), concerns about the shortage of Arabica supply from Brazil due to drought are still the strongest influencing factor in investor sentiment.
Technically, Robusta London closing above 4,000 USD/ton and Arabica New York standing firm above 358 cents/lb is a signal confirming that the upward trend has returned after a short-term correction. Robusta's inflationary price structure is still maintained, showing that spot goods are still scarce.
It is predicted that in the last sessions of this week, domestic coffee prices are likely to conquer the 100,000 VND/kg mark. Dak Nong is currently at 99,300 VND, just needing another slight increase from the London floor this afternoon, the 100,000 VND mark will be conquered.
