Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning witnessed a "red fire" session when purchasing prices in key regions plummeted, marking the deepest decline in many weeks.
Compared to yesterday's trading session (December 17), the average coffee price has lost up to VND 3,600/kg, causing the general price level to drop from the important psychological support level of VND 90,000/kg, currently only VND 89,700/kg.
Specifically, in Gia Lai province, the deepest recorded decrease was up to VND 3,900/kg, bringing the purchase price to VND 89,300/kg.
In the "capital" of Dak Lak, the price decreased by VND 3,500/kg, falling to VND 89,800/kg. Lam Dong province continues to be the locality with the lowest price in the region, down VND 3,800/kg to VND 88,700/kg.
The only bright spot left is Dak Nong (old), although down 3,500 VND/kg, it was lucky to keep the round mark of 90,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The storm of depreciation in the international market has not shown any signs of stopping, extending its decline to the second week.
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee futures for January 2026 had a bad trading session when they "evaporated" up to 136 USD/ton (equivalent to a decrease of 3.45%), closing the session at 3,799 USD/ton. This is Robusta's lowest level in the past 4 months, reflecting the flight of speculative cash flow.
Similar developments also covered the New York Stock Exchange, where Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 fell 4.70 cents/lb (down 1.32%), down to 347.40 cents/lb - the lowest level in 2 months. sell-off pressure is widespread as hedge funds liquidate previous counterfeit buying positions to cut losses.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main reason for this strong sell-off comes from monetary and weather factors. Brazil's Real has just dropped to its lowest level in 4.25 months against the USD. The weak domestic currency has encouraged Brazilian farmers to increase their sales to earn more domestic currency, creating great supply pressure on the international market.
At the same time, "perfect weather" in Brazil is bad news for the bulls. The Somar Meteorologia meteorological agency reported that Minas Gerais has received up to 79.8 mm of rain over the past week (155% of the historical average). Climatempo's forecast of heavy and persistent rains this week has dispelled concerns about drought, strengthening the positive outlook for Brazil's upcoming crop.
In addition, export figures from Vietnam are also putting pressure on prices. The Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) said that Vietnam's coffee exports in November increased by 39% over the same period, reaching 88,000 tons. The forecast of Vietnam's output in the 2025/2026 crop year to increase by 6% to 1.76 million tons further strengthens the psychology of "over supply" in the market.
Although Arabica coffee inventories on the ICE are still low, a slight recovery to a 6-week high last Wednesday (426,938 bags) shows that supply is gradually improving. In the context of macro and fundamental factors supporting the selling side, coffee prices are likely to continue to bottom out in the short term before finding a new balance point.
