Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning witnessed the second consecutive sharp decline, defeating all previous recovery efforts. Pressure from international exchanges has caused domestic purchasing agents to simultaneously adjust down deeply, with an average decrease of about VND 2,000/kg compared to yesterday.
In the capital Dak Lak, the price of green coffee beans has decreased by 2,000 VND, currently only trading at 95,300 VND/kg.
The situation in Lam Dong, where the purchase price has fallen to the lowest level in the region at VND94,500/kg after decreasing by VND2,200.
Similarly, in Gia Lai, coffee prices also "evaporated" by VND1,600, retreating to VND95,200/kg.
Although Dak Nong (old) is still the locality with the best price, reaching 95,500 VND/kg, it is also unlikely to avoid the general decrease of 2,000 VND.
World coffee prices
In the international market, red covered a wide area when both derivatives plummeted. At the end of the first trading session of the week, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange for January 2026 futures decreased by 80 USD (equivalent to 1.94%), closing at 4,042 USD/ton. Notably, this price has pushed Robusta to its lowest level in the past 4 months. Longer terms such as March and May 2026 also fell sharply by more than 2%.
The same trend also occurred on the New York exchange, where Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 fell by 9.00 cents (equivalent to 2.43%), down to 360.30 cents/lb, the lowest level in the past 3 weeks. The December 2025 delivery period also lost 9.50 cents, closing the session at 387.70 cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The direct cause of the huge sell-off in today's session came from weather information in Brazil. The Climatempo Meteorological Agency has just issued a forecast of "rough and persistent" rains falling on key coffee growing areas in Brazil this week. This information immediately relieves the fear of drought, while strengthening the prospect of a more positive new crop yield.
In fact, data from Somar Meteorologia shows that Minas Gerais - Brazil's largest Arabica grassland - received up to 79.8 mm of rain last week, 1.5 times higher (155%) than the historical average. This favorable weather factor, combined with Conab previously raising Brazil's 2025 output forecast to 56.54 million bags, is creating a psychological " wall" weighing on prices.
In addition, pressure from Vietnam's supply is also a factor that cannot be ignored. The Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) reported that coffee exports in November skyrocketed by 39% over the same period, and Vicofa forecasted that the output in the 2025/2026 crop will increase by 10%.
The abundant flow of goods from Vietnam to the world market is overshadowing support from reduced ICE inventory or Brazil's November exports decreased. In the short term, the market will likely continue to be under pressure to adjust until there is new information strong enough to reverse psychology.
