Domestic coffee prices
At the end of the weekend trading session on August 1, domestic coffee prices remained at an average of VND 99,000/kg.
Coffee in Dak Lak is purchased at an average price of 100,000 VND/kg; and in Lam Dong, Gia Lai, there is an average coffee price of about 99,800 VND/kg.
Robusta prices received some support from concerns about dry weather in Vietnam, but the increase was limited due to robusta inventories on the ICE exchange increasing to a 1-year high, reaching 7,029 lots. Meanwhile, arabica inventories fell to a 5.5 month low of 761,453 bags, contributing to curbing the price decline.
The drought has caused the 2023/24 crop output to decrease by 20% to 1.472 million tons - the lowest level in 4 years. Coffee exports in 2024 decreased by 17.1% to 1.35 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also lowered the forecast for the 2024/25 crop year to 26.5 million bags. However, data from the Statistics Office shows that exports in the first 6 months of 2025 increased by 4.1%, reaching 943,000 tons.
World coffee prices
At the end of the weekend trading session (8. 1), the price of arabica coffee futures for September (KCU25) decreased by 11.6 cents/pound (‐3.92%), down to a 3-week low. September-term robusta coffee (RMU25) on ICE Europe also decreased by 71 USD/ton (‐2.09%).
The Brazilian Coffee Association (Cecafe) and the US National Coffee Association (NCA) confirmed that they are discussing with US trade officials the issue of tax exemptions for coffee imported from Brazil - the world's largest exporting country of arabica. US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick also said that items not manufactured in the US may be exempt from taxes.
Over the past three months, coffee prices have been continuously pressured by the prospect of abundant supply. In early July, arabica hit an 8-month low, while Robusta hit a 1.25-year low. According to the report dated June 25 of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS - USDA), Brazil's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop is forecast to increase by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam's coffee output will increase by 6.9%, reaching 31 million bags - the highest in 4 years.
hedge funds continue to increase their position in selling fake robusta coffee. The July 29 report from ICE shows that the net selling position increased by 1,226 contracts, to 5,854 contracts - the highest in 2 years, putting the market at risk of buying to compensate for the position.
From a trade perspective, Brazil's green coffee exports in June fell 31% year-on-year to just 2.3 million bags. Of which, arabica reduced 27% to 1.8 million bags and Robusta reduced 42% to 476,334 bags.
The USDA semi-annual report forecasts global coffee output in the 2025/26 crop to increase by 2.5% to a record of 178.68 million bags. Of which, arabica decreased by 1.7% to 97.02 million bags, but Robusta increased sharply by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags. The end-of-season inventory is expected to increase by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.
In contrast, Volcafe believes that the global arabica market will be short of 8.5 million bags in the 2025/26 crop year - the largest shortfall in the past 5 years.
