Domestic coffee prices
On Sunday, the domestic coffee market did not have any new fluctuations, the purchase price at agents remained unchanged from the closing level of Saturday morning. Currently, the average coffee price in the Central Highlands region is fluctuating around the threshold of 93,600 - 95,000 VND/kg. Compared to the golden age more than a week ago when the price hit a peak of 102,300 VND/kg, the market has now lost about 7,000 - 8,000 VND per kg of raw coffee beans.
Looking back at the developments of the past week, Dak Nong province (old) is still making efforts to maintain the highest price in the region at 95,000 VND/kg.
Closely following are Dak Lak and Gia Lai with purchasing prices of 94,800 VND/kg and 94,700 VND/kg respectively. In Lam Dong, coffee prices are anchored at the lowest level in the region at 93,600 VND/kg.
The fact that coffee prices continuously break important support levels such as 100,000 VND or 95,000 VND has made the psychology of many farmers and agents more cautious in selling before the Lunar New Year holiday.
World coffee prices
In the international market, both London and New York exchanges have just closed a "red-hot" week with very deep drops. The New York Arabica exchange was the focus of the adjustment when the price of March 2026 futures fell to 296.55 cents/lb, recording the lowest level in the past 6 months. This decline was triggered by the Conab agency's forecast of a record crop of Brazil in 2026 with an output of up to 66.2 million bags, an increase of 17.2% compared to the previous year. At the same time, abundant rainfall in the Minas Gerais region reaching 117% of the historical average completely extinguished drought worries, creating huge downward pressure on this exchange.
Similarly, the London Robusta exchange also did not stand outside the vortex when closing the week at 3,755 USD/ton. Although Brazil reported a decrease in exports in January, this information was completely overshadowed by impressive export data from Vietnam. According to the Statistics Office, the volume of coffee exports in January of our country increased sharply by 38.3% compared to the same period, reaching 198,000 tons. The abundant actual supply from Vietnam coupled with the prospect of production increasing by 6% in the 2025/26 crop year has caused speculators to continuously sell off to take profits, pushing Robusta prices deeper back to the bottom of 5.75 months.
Market opinion
In general, the coffee market is undergoing a transition from a shortage state to expecting a surplus supply in the long term. The strong recovery of inventories on the ICE exchange, with Arabica reaching a peak of more than 3 months and Robusta reaching a 2-month high, is the clearest proof of the current downward pressure. The combination of favorable weather conditions in South America and Vietnam's rapid export speed has created a "double blow" making it difficult for coffee prices to maintain a price level above 110,000 VND/kg as previously expected.
Forecast for next week, domestic coffee prices may continue to struggle to establish a new bottom around the threshold of 93,000 - 95,000 VND/kg. This is a period when the market will be greatly affected by Tet holiday sentiment, liquidity may decrease significantly. However, looking at the long-term picture, the current price level is still in the high zone, bringing good profits to growers.
