Domestic coffee prices
After hitting the bottom yesterday, the domestic coffee market this morning, February 6th, has shown signs of recovery with an average increase of about 1,200 VND/kg.
Green color has covered key growing areas in the Central Highlands, bringing coffee prices back to approaching the threshold of 96,000 VND/kg, helping to partially relieve psychological pressure for farmers after recent downturns. According to actual records, the average purchase price throughout the region is currently reaching 95,000 VND/kg.
Going deeper into the details in each locality, Dak Nong province (old) continued to maintain its position as the region with the highest price in the country when it increased by 1,200 VND, officially reaching 96,000 VND/kg.
In two other major coffee capitals, Dak Lak and Gia Lai, prices also recorded a strong recovery from 1,100 to 1,200 VND, bringing the transaction price to the same level of 95,800 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong province alone, although the increase is slightly lower at 800 VND, the price of raw coffee beans has also escaped the bottom to reach 94,600 VND/kg.
Although this recovery is very encouraging, in general, the domestic price level is still under significant pressure from the prospect of abundant supply from Brazil in the future.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the recent trading session witnessed a clear differentiation between the two largest futures exchanges in the world. The London Stock Exchange played a leading role in pulling the market up, while the New York Stock Exchange was still quite cautious.
After falling to its lowest level in nearly 6 months, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange had a spectacular reversal when the March 2026 futures surged by 61 USD, equivalent to an increase of 1.62%, closing the session at 3,822 USD/ton.
The driving force for this increase comes from the latest report of the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, showing that coffee exports of this country in January sharply decreased by 42.4% compared to the same period last year.
In the opposite direction, the New York exchange is still struggling to find a new balance point in the context of pressure from harvest season forecasts. Arabica coffee price for March 2026 delivery slightly decreased by 0.25 cents, closing at 308.40 cents/lb.
According to assessments from Brazil's forecasting agency Conab, the country's coffee production in 2026 is expected to grow dramatically by 17.2%, reaching a record level of 66.2 million bags.
This information, combined with the fact that the key coffee growing region of Minas Gerais received rainfall up to 117% of the historical average last week, has strengthened confidence in an abundant supply, thereby curbing the rise of the Arabica exchange.
Market outlook and coffee price forecast
In general, the recovery of coffee prices in today's session is largely technical after a period of excessive sell-off. The rebound in Robusta prices shows that cash flow from speculative funds is tending to return to the London exchange to seek profits as real export data from Brazil in the short term shows tightening. However, this upward momentum will face many challenges as inventory on the ICE exchange is showing signs of recovery, with Arabica inventory reaching a 3-month high and Robusta also peaking in the past 2 months.
In Vietnam, although world prices fluctuate, export activities are still extremely vibrant. Statistics show that in January 2026, our country exported more than 224,000 tons of coffee, bringing in a value of nearly 1.1 billion USD, an increase of 53% in volume compared to the same period.
The combination of domestic supply is still quite large and fierce competitive pressure from Brazil's record crop prospects will make it difficult for coffee prices to break through strongly immediately.
