Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (February 7) was negative as red color covered the entire Central Highlands region. After a slight recovery session yesterday, agents simultaneously lowered the average purchase price by 1,000 VND/kg, bringing the regional average price to 94,800 VND/kg. This decline accurately reflects the sell-off pressure at the end of the week from the international market.
Specific price movements in regions:
Dak Nong (old): Recorded a decrease of 1,000 VND, currently purchased at 95,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak: Also losing 1,000 VND, the price retreated to 94,800 VND/kg.
Gia Lai: Recorded the strongest decrease in the region (-1,100 VND), bringing the price down to 94,700 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Continuing to be the locality with the lowest price, reducing an additional 1,000 VND to 93,600 VND/kg.
The sharp drop right before the weekend holiday is creating great psychological pressure for farmers, especially when the price level has moved away from the 100,000 VND mark of the previous week.
World coffee prices
The international market session at the end of the week witnessed the decline of both Arabica and Robusta due to the forecast that global supply prospects will be extremely abundant.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): March 2026 delivery fell sharply by 11.85 cents (equivalent to 3.84%), closing at 296.55 cents/lb. This is the lowest level in the past 6 months for this exchange. The main reason is that Conab forecasts that Brazil's coffee production in 2026 will skyrocket by 17.2%, reaching a record level of 66.2 million bags. In addition, the Minas Gerais region receiving 117% of the historical average rainfall also continues to put downward pressure on prices.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): Not outside the trend, Robusta futures for March 2026 fell 67 USD (equivalent to 1.75%), closing the week at 3,755 USD/ton. Although Brazil recorded a decrease in January exports, this figure was completely overshadowed by Vietnam's export data. The Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's coffee exports in January increased sharply by 38.3% over the same period, reaching 198,000 tons.
Market outlook and coffee price forecast
The coffee market is entering a real adjustment phase as negative news about supply continuously appears. The fact that both largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, show abundant supply prospects (Brazil forecasts record crops, Vietnam boosts exports) has triggered a sell-off wave from investment funds. In addition, the recovery of inventory on the ICE exchange is also putting pressure on futures prices.
Forecast in the short term, coffee prices may continue to bottom out to find new support points around the 92,000 - 94,000 VND/kg range.
