Need to have solutions to increase replacement fertility soon
According to the report on the implementation of the Government's socio-economic development plan for 2024, since the beginning of the year, the birth rate has tended to decrease slightly, with Vietnam's total birth rate in 2023 being 1.96 children/woman, continuing to decrease compared to 2022 (2.01 children/woman).
Discussing in groups at the 8th Session of the 15th National Assembly, National Assembly Delegate Pham Trong Nghia (Lang Son Delegation) expressed concern about the national fertility rate tending to fall below the replacement level as well as the significant differences between regions and areas. This poses a major challenge in implementing the goals of the Party Resolution on population work in the new situation.
The National Assembly delegate cited statistics that in our country, there are currently 6 socio-economic regions, of which 4 regions have a birth rate above the replacement level; 2 regions have a birth rate below the replacement level.
“The standard replacement fertility rate is determined to be 2.1 children/woman, but there are regions such as the Southeast where an average of 1 woman gives birth to 1.47 children; the Northern Midlands and Mountains have the highest rate of 2.4 children/woman. The total fertility rate in 2023 is 1.96 children/woman. Currently, the replacement fertility rate is lower than the standard level,” informed National Assembly Deputy Pham Trong Nghia.
According to forecasts, with the current average birth rate, in 2024 the average population growth rate will be 0.93% and will decrease to 0.73% in 2029; in 2039 the population growth rate will be 0.55%; in 2069, the population growth rate will be only 0%.
Assessing the decline in birth rate as a very important issue, delegates proposed that there must be early solutions to increase the replacement birth rate, at least to the standard level; at the same time, there must be policies to deal with the aging population in the future.
Risk of reduced labor productivity
Also concerned about this issue, National Assembly Delegate La Thanh Tan (Hai Phong City National Assembly Delegation) said that Vietnam has been facing the problem of population aging and aging population.
According to the National Assembly Delegate, in recent years, the age of marriage in big cities has gradually increased over time, leading to a situation of "late marriage, lazy childbirth". Late marriage gradually leads to late childbirth, accelerating the rate of population aging, causing a shortage of young human resources, a decline in labor force and productivity, creating increasing pressure on social security.
National Assembly Deputy La Thanh Tan said that according to forecasts, by 2039, Vietnam will face an aging population. The Government has issued Decision No. 588 approving the program to adjust birth rates to suit regions and groups by 2030.
However, according to the National Assembly Delegate, the programs and policies are still general, still in pilot form or have not been implemented strongly, still stopping at communication activities, focusing on birth, the effectiveness is still very modest.
To fundamentally solve this problem, National Assembly Deputy La Thanh Tan suggested that the Government direct relevant sectors and levels to carefully study and evaluate the causes of late marriage and laziness in having children, and learn from the experiences of other countries that have solved this problem to find appropriate solutions.
Priority is given to resolving the most common practical difficulties and obstacles that young couples are facing. At the same time, research is needed to amend the population law and institutionalize the Party's viewpoint on population issues.
