Silver price fluctuation July 14: Selling pressure has not cooled down

Domestic silver prices

As of 9:00 AM on July 14, the price of 999 silver (1 tael) of DOJI Jewelry Group Joint Stock Company was listed at 2.175 - 2.247 million VND/tael (buying - selling); down 30,000 VND/tael on the buying side and down 31,000 VND/tael on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

At the same time, the price of 999 silver bars (1 tael) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group was listed at 2,180 - 2.247 million VND/tael (buying - selling); down 28,000 VND/tael on the buying side and down 29,000 VND/tael on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

The price of 999 silver ingots (1kg) at Phu Quy Jewelry Group is listed at 58.133 - 59.919 million VND/kg (buying - selling); down 746,000 VND/kg on the buying side and down 774,000 VND/kg on the selling side compared to yesterday morning.

World silver price

On the world market, as of 9:30 AM on July 14 (Vietnam time), the world silver price was listed at 57.64 USD/ounce; down 0.78 USD/ounce compared to yesterday morning.

Causes and forecasts

Silver prices fell nearly 3%, to around 58.14 USD/ounce as tensions in the Middle East escalated, pulling fuel prices up sharply and reducing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon cut interest rates.

The increase in fuel prices has increased concerns about inflation, thereby causing US government bond yields and the USD to simultaneously rise. These are two factors putting great pressure on silver - an asset that does not yield yields.

Meanwhile, the yield of 10-year US government bonds is approaching the peak of many months, while the USD index is also recovering from an important support zone. The strengthening USD along with the increase in bond yields has reduced the attractiveness of silver and increased selling pressure.

According to James Hyerczyk - a precious metals analyst, developments in the Middle East are causing safe-haven money to mainly flow into the USD and US government bonds, instead of precious metals such as silver. The current context is different from many previous periods of conflict, when rising energy prices increase inflationary pressure, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates for a longer time.

For silver prices to have a chance to recover, the market needs to see positive signals such as fuel prices cooling down or the Fed issuing a message to ease monetary policy. However, these two scenarios are currently unlikely to happen as tensions in the Middle East have not shown signs of cooling down," he said.

This week, the market will continue to monitor a series of important US economic data, including the consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (PPI), retail sales, unemployment claims and housing market data. According to James Hyerczyk, if these data show that inflationary pressure is still high, the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates at a high level will be strengthened, continuing to adversely affect silver prices.

In addition, China's economic data will also affect the outlook for demand for industrial metals. If the Chinese economy weakens, downward pressure on silver prices may increase due to reduced consumption and production demand.