The "opening" trading sessions of 2025 did not meet investors' expectations. The VN-Index fell sharply below the 20-session moving average, breaking through the 1,260-point level, so the short-term trend of the general market has been lowered to a downtrend.
Analysts said the VN-Index may continue to decline in the coming trading week; the index may head towards two important support levels of 1,250 points and lower at 1,238 points.
The reason for the market correction is due to doubts about the possibility of a deep decline along with speculations about the State Bank selling foreign currency to control the exchange rate, which has caused investor sentiment to decline.
Currently, the USD index is increasing sharply because investors are also concerned about inflationary pressure that may increase again in 2025, so monetary policy management also needs to become more flexible when our USD reserves are assessed by securities companies as not too abundant at around 80 billion USD.
Therefore, experts assess that it is likely that the State Bank also needs to be flexible with interest rate tools in the OMO market along with money withdrawal activities because currently, the Government is also prioritizing maintaining low interest rates to support business growth.
However, experts assess that these are only short-term impacts. 2025 is still considered a year with many factors supporting the stock market to break out when the determination to promote reform and economic growth has made changes.
In addition, the story of upgrading the stock market may be the beginning of a wave of re-entry of other foreign investors into the market after recent net selling pressure; opening up opportunities for capital mobilization, increasing the attractiveness of the stock market, creating a boost for the breakthrough of the Vietnamese market at this time.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Cpaital, expressed his opinion that the fluctuations of the stock market at the beginning of 2025 were not as expected, but still showed that opportunities for short-term investment and trading activities still existed, although not much.
“Usually, the first months of the year are the period when investors are positive about market developments because this is often the period of reporting business results, as well as business plans for the new year, so the market will also receive this positive information.
The most important thing now is to stay "relaxed" as well as clear-headed to decide whether to continue holding the portfolio and wait for a better opportunity, or to sell off stocks," Dr. Phuong commented.
