Cash flow is slow due to lack of supporting information
The stock market has gone through a week of struggling trading as cautious sentiment continues to dominate. Although starting the week with a positive increase, demand was not strong enough, causing the VN-Index to quickly return to an adjustment state. After many challenges, the VN-Index lost 1,320 points in the trading session at the end of the week on March 28 due to pressure from the bluechip group. At the end of the last week of March, the VN-Index stopped at 1,317.46 points.
The trading volume remained below the 20-day average, showing the cautious sentiment of investors, especially after the previous strong increase. Foreign investors continued to maintain their net selling momentum with a value of nearly VND 2,381 billion on both exchanges last week. Of which, foreign investors net sold more than VND 2,285 billion on the HOSE and more than VND 95 billion on the HNX. Net selling pressure from foreign investors also contributed to increasing pressure on the VN-Index. If this trend continues, the risk of adjustment will increase.
Experts say the reason is that this period of time falls into the " left information area" stage.
Waiting for the new wave
April marks the general meeting of shareholders along with the 2025 business plan - the profit target of enterprises is expected to be an appropriate measure to measure the growth prospects of the VN-Index this year. The GDP growth target of 8% in 2025 is expected to be a stepping stone for overall profit growth for the whole market.
Analysts from Mirea Asset Securities Company predict that the VN-Index is expected to continue to grow and move towards the 1,330-point mark in the context of being affected by mixed news from the international market surrounding the trading battle. However, profit-taking pressure from the banking group will form corrections in the short term to create a new balance of the VN-Index at the old peaks, especially in the context that the VN-Index is still trading at the resistance zone of 1,300 - 1,330 points. The new support zone of the HOSE floor index is expected to form around 1,280 points.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Strategic Investment at DG Capital, said that although foreign capital has not returned soon, the pressure of divestment from foreign investors will no longer be a major barrier to the increase of the VN-Index. Especially when the domestic macro foundation is reinforced by support policies from the Government. Regarding domestic institutional cash flow, for personal cash flow, purchasing power is maintained and there is still abundant room for marginal lending (margin) at large securities companies. The unofficial margin service fee (vehicle) is likely to reappear, but the estimated scale is low. Therefore, the pressure to take short-term profits will not be too great, because most of the cash flow participating in the market in the past time was self-made capital, not relying much on leverage. With potential demand waiting for corrections to participate, there is still room for the VN-Index to expand its upward momentum, this expert expressed his opinion.
Many experts also agree that the liquidity of the stock market is expected to be boosted by the upgrading process, expected to take place in September 2025, as well as the decline in net selling pressure from foreign investors. With the above motivations, it is forecasted that the VN-Index can increase to the 1,450 point range, corresponding to the expected P/E of 12 times, when the after-tax profit growth of businesses listed on the market can reach 14% - 16%.
Based on macro prospects and market developments, real estate and public investment stocks are expected by investors to be two potential stocks in 2025, when they directly benefit from economic recovery trends and support policies from the Government.
