“I am neutral on gold next week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
“The US non-farm payrolls report over the weekend boosted US Treasury yields and the USD, suggesting a moderate pace for future rate cuts.”
Adrian Day - Chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management - said he does not expect a deep pullback as gold still has many supportive factors.
“Gold prices will be unchanged next week. With Chinese buyers returning from a four-day holiday, we could see some renewed buying activity. But after two months of strong gains, gold prices will pause and the US jobs report later in the week could be the immediate cause.”
Jesse Colombo, an independent precious metals analyst, is also neutral on gold. He sees gold trading between $2,650 and $2,700 an ounce and says it’s a buy on dips.
Meanwhile, James Stanley - senior market strategist at Forex.com has a positive view on gold next week.
“The bulls are still in. The dollar has rallied this week, but it has only created a slight pullback in gold prices.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, is weighing the implications of Friday morning’s nonfarm payrolls report for the U.S. economy and gold prices. Lusk said geopolitical tensions have pushed gold higher and no one wants to short the precious metal given the prospect of Israel retaliating against Iran’s ballistic missile attack.
“In theory, gold should fall further. But that drop may not happen until next week,” he said.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco, agreed, predicting that gold prices will rise next week following tensions in the Middle East. "Gold prices will rise steadily amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty," he said.
“I think gold will be lower early next week. The potential downside is towards $2,580-$2,600 an ounce,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The impact of the US jobs data will last for a few days. The focus will shift to inflation later next week and a softer headline inflation report could support gold.”
Chandler said concerns about escalation in the Middle East also supported gold. "The Chinese market reopens on Tuesday, with the rise in stocks, the stock market could take some of the pressure off gold demand," he added.
The precious metal is still likely to maintain its upward momentum, said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com: “Technically, gold appears to be running out of near-term upside momentum. However, with the US election, gold will continue to find interest and buying interest.”
Mark Leibovit, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, believes the market has reached a short-term cyclical peak.
“Cyclically, the market may have run out of steam to go further. But I am not out of the market. I do not agree with the view that a stronger dollar necessarily causes gold prices to fall. I believe that the dollar and gold go up together, not inversely.
I think when central banks buy gold, they have to buy it in dollars. That pushes the dollar up. So I'm in favor of the dollar and gold scenario going up until we have a final burst in gold, whatever that number is. Whether it's $3,000 or $5,000, whatever the final peak is, the dollar will still be strong during that period and probably beyond."
Leibovit believes the gold market is rallying for two main reasons. “One is lower interest rates. The Fed is seeing a recession coming and they are trying to be proactive. But I think the bigger driver of the market is the actions from China. They are changing their fiscal and monetary direction. I think that is a big driver for the market going forward.
There's also the war in the Middle East and the US election. Who knows what's going to happen in the first week of November? The market could still have some volatility in the next 30 days, so I wouldn't risk too much on any market right now," Leibovit added.
Michael Moor - founder of Moor Analytics commented that gold prices will decrease in the near future.
Economic data impact gold prices next week
The economic calendar is not particularly busy next week, but investors will still pay attention to the US consumer price index for September, due for release on Thursday morning. Market participants will be looking at whether inflationary pressures continue to ease, which would support the Fed's easing cycle.
Other notable economic data that could impact gold prices next week include the minutes of the Fed’s most recent monetary policy meeting due Wednesday afternoon; the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday and the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. producer price index and consumer sentiment on Friday morning.
