Gold is forecast to continue to maintain positive momentum in 2026, although the growth rate may slow down. This is one of the noteworthy assessments made by CRU Group - a leading global independent commodity price research and reporting agency - in the Commodity Outlook for 2026 report when assessing the outlook for the precious metal group.
According to CRU, the macroeconomic, monetary and geopolitical environment still creates a foundation to support gold. However, after a period of strong market response to shocks, the factors that determine the direction of the precious metal are forecast to change this year.
CRU forecasts gold's upward momentum remains
CRU assesses that gold enters 2026 with positive momentum, supported by a combination of many factors.
Slower global economic growth, increasing fiscal imbalances and rising public debt are expected to continue to boost demand for defensive assets from both institutional investors and central banks. As a result, the strategic role of gold continues to be strengthened.
US monetary policy is also an important factor in the outlook given by the CRU.
CRU expects the prolonged easing cycle of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue to put pressure on real yields. This reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold – an asset that does not yield yields.
However, the noteworthy point is that CRU does not predict that the upward momentum will take place at a similar rate as before. This organization believes that the upward momentum of gold may continue, but the upward speed is likely to slow down.
The report does not provide a specific target price for gold in 2026.
Factors that determine the direction of gold are changing
CRU also pointed out the difference between the market environment in 2025 and the prospects for 2026.
The volatility of the precious metals market in 2025 is a strong reaction to shocks. In 2026, CRU believes that the market will shift to an environment more affected by policy.
With gold, this means that price movements will increasingly depend on investor position, inflationary momentum, the direction of the USD and the duration of geopolitical tensions.
Thus, the positive outlook for gold does not mean a continuous upward trend. The diễn biến of the above variables will play an increasingly large role in deciding the speed and level of fluctuation of the precious metal this year.
CRU forecasts another favorable year for gold mining businesses
For gold mining companies, CRU offers relatively positive prospects for 2026.
The report suggests that this year may continue to be a very favorable year for gold mining enterprises, with profit margins maintained at a high level and likely to continue to improve.
One of the reasons is that the average cost per ounce is forecast to hardly increase at a rate corresponding to gold prices. If selling prices increase faster than production costs, the profit margin of mining companies will continue to be supported.
The high price level also allows businesses to exploit areas with lower ore quality or higher production costs while still ensuring economic efficiency.
CRU also believes that higher gold prices could help producing countries increase revenue through mining royalties.
However, large cash flow and increased business valuation simultaneously pose a problem of capital allocation.
According to CRU, businesses need to be cautious with mergers and acquisitions when valuations are high. Instead, organic growth may become a more notable option, including converting resources into reserves, optimizing operations, expanding existing mines and developing new projects from existing assets.
Overall, CRU still maintains a positive outlook for gold in 2026 but does not set a specific price target. The forecast focus is on whether the upward momentum may continue but the growth rate slows down, while the market's direction is increasingly dependent on inflation, USD, geopolitics, monetary policy and investor positions.
