Currently, more than 900 enterprises representing 95% of the total market capitalization have announced their business results for the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to preliminary statistics, total after-tax profit in the last quarter of 2024 increased by 20.9% over the same period in 2023, maintaining a stable growth rate for the fourth consecutive quarter. With positive profit results, the P/E valuation of the whole market has decreased to 12.5 times, the lowest since May 2023 to date.
The liquidity of the stock market is showing signs of improvement, but is still low. On average, liquidity in 2024 will reach VND 21,000 billion/session, in January 2025, it will decrease to VND 12,800 billion/session, and in the first 2 sessions of February 2025, it will increase to VND 16,000 billion/session.
Notably, foreign investors continue to net sell, after selling a record net of nearly VND93,000 billion in 2024, last month they net sold more than VND9,000 billion. In general, domestic cash flow will still be a decisive factor in market growth.
In a recent report, Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC) commented that in the second half of the first quarter of 2025, information about the 2025 business plan and the first quarter profit statement are expected to bring a brighter picture to the stock market.
The growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 is forecast to slow down to 7% when losing the low base factor of the same period last year. The non-financial group decreased slightly due to normalized profit margin, while the financial services group was affected by asset turnover when market liquidity remained low compared to the same period. The forecast growth rate in the first quarter of the year is from the real estate group and banks.
Assessing market developments, analysts from Thien Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (TVS) said that with the context of Vietnam's macro economy continuing to grow well, this will be the main driving force for VN-Index to achieve the target range of 1,380 - 1,400 points, along with the total market profit increasing by 16.2% and P/E reaching 12.5 times at the end of the year.
TVS experts also believe that the market can still be supported by other macro information such as the trend of interest rate cuts in the world will continue in 2025, the VND can only depreciate by about 3% compared to the USD because the US Federal Reserve (FED) continues to reduce interest rates and the USD supply is improved...
However, cash flow from domestic investors may be limited because US President Donald Trump's takeover will boost the cryptocurrency market, thereby leading to a part of the cash flow shifting to these assets. In addition, the deposit interest rate level may increase by about 0.5% compared to the end of 2024 due to increased demand for credit disbursement at commercial banks due to the high lending/deposit ratio (LDR) and pressure from exchange rates.
For the stock market to grow by 16.2% in 2025, TVS experts believe that there must be a main contribution from two industry groups: banking and real estate.
In the banking group, profits increased thanks to stable credit growth. Cash flow from public investment disbursement along with recovering consumer loan demand will be the main drivers to promote credit growth in the whole industry.
For the real estate group, residential real estate is expected to recover strongly in terms of profits. The reason is that new legal policies such as the amended Land Law and Resolution 171/2024/QH15, help speed up the legal progress of projects in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, thereby improving the supply of new apartments.
The industrial park real estate segment is also assessed as positive, continuing to record good growth in 2025, thanks to stable FDI disbursement and the need to expand production from investors.
