World gold prices continue to trade near important support levels as investors assess the latest policy decision of the Bank of England (BoE) and the interest rate outlook of major central banks.
In the July meeting, BoE decided to keep the basic interest rate at 3.75%, as expected by the market. However, the voting results showed that 3 out of 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) supported raising interest rates by an additional 0.25 percentage points, more than analysts previously predicted.
Notably, BoE believes that crude oil and energy product prices are still fluctuating strongly and significantly higher than before the Middle East conflict escalated. The central bank believes that the energy shock continues to be an uncertain factor for the UK economy and there is a risk of maintaining inflationary pressure in the near future.
In the policy statement, BoE emphasized that the goal of bringing inflation back to 2% sustainably is still the top priority. The agency said that the direction of monetary policy will depend on the scale, duration of the energy shock as well as its spread to the economy and financial conditions.
In addition to the decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the BoE also announced three scenarios for economic prospects. According to the basic scenario, inflation could reach about 3.2% by the end of 2026 before gradually decreasing towards the target. In case energy prices continue to escalate, inflation could increase to about 4.1%, forcing monetary policy to maintain a tighter state for longer.
These signals show that BoE has not sent a message that it will soon cut interest rates, meaning that the high-interest rate environment may last longer than expected. This is a factor that often reduces the attractiveness of gold because the precious metal does not bring yields.
After the BoE decision, spot gold prices still maintained around 4081 USD/ounce, while converted to the British pound reached about 3,049 British pounds/ounce.
Previously, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%–3.75%, and 3 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted in favor of raising interest rates by another 25 basis points.
The fact that both the Fed and BoE keep interest rates unchanged but more opinions supporting further tightening appear shows that major central banks still prioritize controlling inflation first. The prospect of maintaining high interest rates is therefore still a factor that the gold market must monitor in the coming time.
