Gold prices are facing the risk of further adjustment as global bond yields rise, while the upward momentum of precious metals weakens. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), recent developments are putting significant pressure on gold prices in the short term.
The WGC believes that signals from the US Treasury Department and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are different. However, the overall impact on gold remains negative as precious metal prices fall while bond yields rise.
Notably, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's tough statement at the Jackson Hole conference caused the market to strongly adjust expectations about monetary policy. The yield of US 2-year-term bonds increased sharply, reflecting the possibility that monetary policy will be maintained in a tightening state in the near future.
According to WGC, the increase in 2-year term yields has pulled gold prices below the 200-day moving average (MA200) - a noteworthy technical signal for the short-term trend.
However, capital flows into global gold ETFs are still maintained, although the pace has slowed down. Net buying positions in the futures contract market have also increased, while overall upward positions in the options market have slightly decreased.
Technically, WGC believes that gold prices may continue to adjust to the 55-day moving average as the upward momentum in the short term weakens.
Previously, gold prices had approached the resistance zone of 4,769-4,774 USD/ounce, corresponding to a 50% retreat of the decline in 2026 and the May peak. However, after a sharp decline, the price has fallen back below MA200, showing that the market may be shifting to a fluctuating state in the range.
WGC assesses that the daily RSI indicator has formed a peak, while net buying positions have increased sharply. These factors show that there is still room for gold price adjustment, especially as global bond yields continue to rise.
On the support side, 4,311 USD/ounce is the first area to be monitored, corresponding to the low in mid-August. If selling pressure increases, the MA55 line at around 4,215 USD/ounce will become a more important support area.
WGC believes that this may be the area that helps gold prices find a balance point if the correction continues.
In the opposite direction, 4,474 USD/ounce - corresponding to the 13-day surplus momentum average - is the nearest resistance. Next is MA200 at around 4,530 USD/ounce.
If gold prices rebound above 4,530 USD/ounce, the short-term trend may turn positive and pave the way for prices to test the 4,696 USD/ounce zone, before heading towards the strong resistance zone of 4,769–4,774 USD/ounce.
Thus, the diễn biến of bond yields, Fed policy expectations and the possibility of gold prices regaining MA200 will be important factors determining the next direction of the precious metal.
