World gold prices have decreased significantly compared to the record level of over 5,500 USD/ounce set at the beginning of the year. However, many research organizations still believe that the fundamental factors of the market have not changed significantly, in the context of demand from the formal sector and the trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves continuing to be monitored.
Some forecasts by Natixis currently still set gold prices at around 4,600 USD/ounce by the end of the year. This scenario is built on the basis of continued long-term investment demand, instead of depending on short-term market fluctuations.
Notably, buying power from central banks continues to be considered one of the important variables of the gold market in the second half of the year. After a period of strong energy market fluctuations and many countries having to use part of gold reserves to support liquidity as well as stabilize their domestic currencies, the prospect of cooling down energy prices is expected to create conditions for gold reserve supplementation activities to improve again.
The World Gold Council (WGC)'s "Gold Market Outlook for Mid-2026" report also suggests that central banks' gold buying demand will continue to be one of the factors affecting market developments in the second half of the year. According to the WGC, gold prices are still about 7% lower than their January peak but continue to be in the group of best performing assets in the past year.
In the underlying scenario, the WGC believes that gold prices are likely to fluctuate around the current level with an amplitude of about ±5%. The report also noted that the outlook for the precious metal will continue to be affected by global economic growth, inflation, central bank monetary policy and geopolitical risks.
From a market perspective, Saxo Bank's report "From a sell-off wave to an accumulation phase: Precious metals look for bottom-fishing zones" said that gold prices are still about 26% lower than the peak at the beginning of the year. The report also noted that the price zone below 4,000 USD/ounce continued to be maintained in recent adjustments, while recovery waves around 4,200 USD/ounce all showed selling pressure.
Saxo Bank believes that the developments of the gold market in the coming time will continue to be associated with expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). After the US June jobs report recorded that the economy only created 57,000 jobs, expectations about the interest rate roadmap have been adjusted compared to before, while investors continue to monitor new signals from the Fed.
In addition to the official sector, demand from China is also continuing to be monitored by many organizations. Stable buying power from the world's largest gold consumer market is assessed as one of the factors that may contribute to maintaining the price level of precious metals in the medium and long term.
