China's surprising action in the context of strong gold price increase

Khương Duy |

In the context of rising gold prices, China bought $961 million worth of gold from Russia in November 2025, according to a new report from the Moscow Times.

This is the second consecutive month that Russian gold exports to China have exceeded the 900 million USD mark, the report said, citing Chinese customs data. Previously, in October, the value of Russia's gold exports to China was estimated at 930 million USD.

The gold buying rate seems to have skyrocketed at the end of the year, as the two months of October and November alone accounted for almost all bilateral gold transactions in 2025.

China imported a total of 1.9 billion USD of Russian gold from January to November, nearly 9 times higher than the same period last year.

This strong increase comes as China steps up its policy of increasing gold reserves to reduce its dependence on the US dollar. And although the figures in the official data are already huge, the reality may be many times higher.

Dien bien gia vang the gioi nhung phien giao dich gan day. Bieu do: Khuong Duy
World gold price developments in recent trading sessions. Chart: Khuong Duy

In October, French bank Societe Generale estimated - based on the difference between barley imports, domestic mining output and official reserves - that the actual amount of gold purchased by China could be 10 times higher than the figure released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC): 250 tons instead of 25 tons.

The analysis is based on UK gold export data - one of the most reliable indicators of physical flows. According to this measure, China has added more than 1,080 tons of gold to its reserves since mid-2022.

Mr. Adrian Ash - Research Director of Bullion Vault (headquartered in London) said that the trend of gold hoarding reflects increased concerns about global economic and financial instability.

At the end of November, Ukrainian news agency UNN reported that for the first time in history, the Russian Central Bank (CBR) sold national reserve gold directly to domestic markets.

Before 2025, CBR has never sold gold to commercial entities, but only received gold from the Ministry of Finance to increase reserves. However, as Russia's National Welfare Fund saw liquidity fall from $113.5 billion in 2022 to $51.6 billion in 2025 - and the fund's goldfall fell 57%, from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons - the central bank had no choice but to sell reserves.

The report estimates that CBR could sell up to 230 tonnes of gold, worth about $30 billion this year, and at least 115 more tonnes, worth $15 billion, by 2026.

The gold sale strategy could help supplement the budget quickly and stabilize the ruble, but it creates long-term risks: deepening the shortage of liquidity reserves, making state finances more dependent on selling assets and limiting the room for future intervention, the warning report The erosion of reserves including gold, which has been considered vulnerable for decades shows that Moscows financial space has been significantly narrowed under sanctions.

In a separate report, the Russian Central Bank said central banks in emerging economies are increasing their gold purchases to diversify international reserves, partly due to the lack of stagnation in the G7's discussions on the use of Russian assets.

CBR was quoted by Reuters as saying that investment demand for gold is increasing due to uncertainty in global growth; at the same time, this precious metal is also supported by stable demand from central banks in emerging economies, which are diversifying reserves in the context of the G7 discussing the use of frozen Russian assets.

The report said that of the approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, $243 billion was held in Europe, while Russia's total gold and foreign exchange reserves reached $734 billion as of November 14.

Khương Duy
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