Major banks expect gold price to reach 5,000 USD/ounce by the end of 2026

According to Kitco, J.P. Morgan's outlook for 2026 believes that the gold price increase cycle will continue as key drivers remain firm, and new demand from major insurance groups in China and the cryptocurrency community may help this precious metal surpass the $5,055/ounce mark by the end of the year.

Ms. Natasha Kaneva - Head of Global Commodity Strategy at J.P. Morgan - commented: "The upward momentum of gold is not and will not take place in a straight line, but we believe that the trends that are driving the gold revaluation process are still not exhausted.

The long-term trend of diversifying official reserves and investment portfolios in gold still has room for development. We expect gold demand to push prices closer to the 5,000 USD/ounce mark by the end of 2026”.

The bank's price forecast is based on the assumption that investment demand will continue to be high, along with stable demand from central banks, with an average expected purchase of about 585 tons per quarter in 2026.

J.P. Morgan also believes that the size of the gold-owning investor group may continue to expand in the coming year, with Chinese insurance companies and the cryptocurrency industry being new potential sources of demand.

Although accurately determining when catalysts and cash flow flow into the market is still difficult, we still have strong belief that gold demand will have enough "firepower" to continue pushing prices towards the 5,000 USD/ounce mark in 2026.

Even, we believe that our assumptions about investment demand may still be quite cautious. We have built a scenario in which, if only 0.5% of foreign investors' USD holdings in the US are diversified into gold, then this new demand is enough to push prices up to 6,000 USD/ounce" - Mr. Gregory Shearer, Head of Basic Metals and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, said.

In the context of relatively weak gold mining supply and slow response to higher prices, while demand is expected to remain strong, the current risk leans towards the possibility of achieving this long-term goal much earlier than expected," Mr. Shearer added.

J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts that gold prices will reach an average of $5,055/ounce in Q4/2026, and believes that this precious metal could reach $5,400/ounce by the end of 2027.