Good resilience amid global fluctuations
Despite the continuous fluctuations in the global economy with many unpredictable factors such as geopolitical conflicts, prolonged inflation and supply chains, Vietnam has maintained a positive and stable growth rate, not only demonstrating good resilience but also showing strong recovery potential in the medium and long term. This is an important foundation for Vietnam to move towards the double-digit growth target and become a high-income economy by 2045.
According to Mr. Dominic Scriven - Founder and Executive Chairman of Dragon Capital, the world is currently tournating around the following main types of risks: First are issues related to currency; second are internal issues in each country; third are international issues between countries; fourth are issues related to climate change; and finally are issues related to technology.
"Looking at the global level, the situation is facing many challenges. However, in Vietnam, the picture is somewhat lighter" - Mr. Dominic commented.
In general, Mr. Dominic Scriven believes that the macroeconomic situation, the performance of enterprises and the stock market thanks to the support of the Government and synchronous policies, GDP growth through the quarters has remained stable. It is expected that by the end of 2025, although natural disasters could cause a GDP decline of about 0.5%, the situation is still quite optimistic.
Towards 2026 and the following years, the GDP growth target of 10% is assessed as feasible. To achieve this, trust and policy will play a key role" - Mr. Dominic assessed.
Regarding policy, it can be seen that Resolution 68 also clearly emphasizes the role of the private economic sector. Currently, Vietnam has about 5 million individual business households. New tax policies will contribute to bringing the informal sector into the formal sector of the economy. In the next 3 - 4 years, this driving force can contribute more than 1% to GDP per year.
In terms of confidence, the PMI index has continuously increased since the beginning of 2025, reflecting the encouragement from the Government. FDI activities have also increased sharply, especially this year, not only in production but also in real estate. At the same time, the "key" to growth next year is investment, especially public investment. In addition, returning to Vietnam's traditional driving force of exports, Mr. Dominic Scriven said that this year's export activities have exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts.
Many organizations increase GDP growth forecasts
With the above positive factors, many international organizations have raised their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth. In the latest report published in early December on global economic prospects, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted the forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal showing that the Vietnamese economy continues to maintain a solid macro foundation, even in the context of many uncertainties in international trade.
The OECD assessed that 2025 will record a strong "push-up" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% over the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, accumulation of fixed assets and export of goods and services.
Previously, HSBC also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report.
