Two scenarios, one goal
The tourism industry development scenario associated with the "double-digit" growth target sets a target for 2026 to welcome 25 - 27 million international visitors, 150 - 153 million domestic visitors, total revenue from tourism reaching 1,125 - 1,230 trillion VND, contributing to the GDP growth target of 10% or more.
The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism offers two scenarios. In the high scenario, in the context of the tourism industry maintaining its growth momentum and the impacts of the Middle East conflict being resolved soon, the goal is to welcome 27 million international visitors and 153 million domestic visitors.
In addition, the ministry also expects a low scenario in case of unfavorable conditions, the goal is to welcome 23.2 million international visitors and 148 million domestic visitors. Thus, regardless of the scenario, the goal is still that the number of international visitors in 2026 will be higher than in 2025 (21.2 million visitors).
Assigning targets to localities
To realize the goal, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism assigned targets for international visitor growth to 11 key tourist localities: Ho Chi Minh City is assigned to welcome 11.5 million international visitors, an increase of 33.7% compared to 2025, Hanoi welcomes 10 million visitors, an increase of 27.8%; Da Nang welcomes 9 million visitors, an increase of 31.5%; Khanh Hoa welcomes 7.2 million visitors, an increase of 30.9%; Quang Ninh welcomes 6 million visitors, an increase of 33%; Ninh Binh welcomes 3 million visitors, an increase of 36.3%; Hue welcomes 2.5 million visitors, an increase of 31.5%; An Giang welcomes 2.5 million visitors, an increase of 31.5%; Lao Cai welcomes 1.9 million visitors, an increase of 30.6%; Hai Phong welcomes 1.8 million visitors, an increase of 30.5%; Lam Dong welcomes 1.58 million visitors, an increase of 33.7%.
To implement this target, many localities have begun to plan to accelerate. Typically, Ho Chi Minh City, in the first 8 months of 2026, the city welcomed about 7.77 million international visitors. Thus, in the last 4 months of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City must complete 3.37 million international visitors.
City tourism focuses on developing specialized tours for both Vietnamese and international tourists, including experiencing cultural - historical memories of urban areas and ancient cuisine; exploring the life of craft villages, indigenous culture; high-class tours on wharves and boats or journeys associated with youth memories and local education.
In Hanoi, in the first 8 months of 2026, Hanoi welcomed 24.56 million visitors, of which international visitors reached 6.01 million. Compared to the target assigned in the scenario, Hanoi needs to increase welcoming nearly 4 million more international visitors.
Vice Chairman of Hanoi People's Committee Vu Thu Ha said that tourism development needs to be based on the foundation of preserving and promoting cultural and historical values, taking heritage, art, cuisine, craft villages and the creativity of Hanoi people as the core.
The city is oriented to shift from extensive development to intensive, prioritizing attracting high-spending, long-term accommodation customers, focusing on strong products such as cultural tourism, MICE, events and specialized tourism.
Meanwhile, Da Nang has welcomed nearly 7 million international visitors in 8 months, so the possibility of completing 9 million visits compared to the target is very positive. Da Nang City has a new approach of organizing promotion through a network of content creators (KOLs) in many fields such as tourism, lifestyle, entertainment, cuisine from more than 20 countries and territories in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Europe and the United States.
Quantity must create value
Although assigned targets for the number of international visitors, localities need to pay more attention to economic value, especially the spending level of tourists. In Hanoi, international visitors spend an average of 120 USD/day, domestic visitors have 84 USD/day of accommodation, which is considered still modest. Therefore, the requirement is to shift from developing tourism based on quantity to improving quality, efficiency, added value and competitiveness.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the biggest gap today is the connection between tourism and the night economy. Ho Chi Minh City is bustling at night, but products capable of generating revenue after 8 pm such as open-night museums, art stages, river tours, creative cultural spaces or specialized entertainment programs are still not many. Therefore, night entertainment product chains are also being invested in to extend the length of stay and promote tourist purchasing power.
Currently, the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee is developing a resolution to submit to the People's Council to support new tourism models, and at the same time proactively research piloting the model of tourism - entertainment - commercial centers operating 24/7. Along with that, it is to improve the mechanism for value-added tax (VAT) refunds right at shopping centers and points of purchase that meet the conditions to stimulate tourists' purchasing power.
Resolution 26-NQ/TW of the Politburo on developing Vietnamese tourism to become a key economic sector in the new era clearly states that by 2030, tourism will directly contribute 10-12% of GDP, welcome 45-50 million international visitors, 160 million domestic visitors, and total revenue of 80-90 billion USD with a focus on high-spending and long-term accommodation tourists.
Clearly, Resolution 26 raises the issue of changing the quality of tourism growth. To become a new growth engine, Vietnamese tourism should not only ask how many visitors there are, but also ask how much value each visitor creates, how much additional consumer value each day of stay creates, and how much of that is actually retained.
