The new land price list will be applied nationwide from 2026, replacing the old land price list. In Hanoi, the new land price list has been approved, expected to be applied from January 1, 2026, with the highest increase of up to 26%.
Talking to Lao Dong, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn - said that the application of the new land price list in the initial stage could create certain "shocks" for the market.
According to Mr. Quoc Anh, moving from a stable land price list every 5 years to an annual update will narrow the gap between market price and tax calculation price. When the gap is narrowed, input costs for people and businesses will certainly increase.
"When the price list increases, people's tax obligations will increase. Enterprises related to compensation, land recovery, transfer or land acquisition are all subject to greater cost pressure. And in reality, this increased cost will often be transferred to the project selling price, said Mr. Quoc Anh.
This impact is especially evident in Hanoi, where real estate prices have increased sharply in the past 2-3 years. Data from Batdongsan.com.vn shows that in the period of 2023 - 2025, the average price of many types of real estate in Hanoi has increased by more than 90%, from about 87 million VND/m2 to more than 190 million VND/m2.
"As input costs continue to increase, home buyers at this stage will certainly have a more cautious mentality," said Mr. Quoc Anh.
In addition to cost factors, the market is also affected by interest rate developments. Mr. Quoc Anh said that interest rates are showing signs of increasing again, creating more pressure on liquidity.
One of the important issues that this expert emphasized was data to build a land price list. According to him, the market fluctuates very quickly, the prices at the beginning of the year and the end of the year can be different by 15 - 20%.
"On the same street, the prices of the beginning and the end of the street are very different. Therefore, the question "What data is the basis?" is especially important for the price list to be close to reality and not distort the market" - Mr. Quoc Anh emphasized.
He said that in the coming time, when the unified Real Estate Trading Center is deployed, market data will be more focused and accurate. However, the process of accumulating - analyzing - standardizing data will require a long time.
In terms of goals, Mr. Quoc Anh said that adjusting land prices is necessary to collect taxes close to reality, increase resources for infrastructure development and social security. However, the initial application can create significant pressure. However, he said that it is necessary to consider distinguishing between home buyers and investors. For people who have lived stably for many years, the sudden increase in tax obligations will create a great burden. A mechanism to reduce tax obligations for residents of 5 years or more can be considered, based on household registration data, electricity and water or actual time in place.
Similarly, with garden land - residential land of large households, the increase in the land price list will cause the cost of changing land use purposes to increase sharply. According to Mr. Quoc Anh, this group also needs to have its own policy because they are not investors but mainly want to legalize housing needs.
He also said that some countries have applied different mechanisms for each target group, for example, people with real housing needs apply lower tax rates, and businesses invest and do business at higher rates. This reflects the correct purpose of use and profitability of each type of land.
To limit market shock when applying the new land price list, Mr. Quoc Anh proposed groups of solutions such as applying a roadmap for each stage, for example, the first stage only applies 70 - 80% of market price, then gradually increases. Clearly distinguish between buying for living and buying for investment, avoiding creating a burden for real residents.
