In the first 3 months of 2025, many real estate businesses have entered the race to open new projects for sale, hand over products, bringing prospects for revenue.
For example, Vinhomes (code VHM), has opened for sale 2 projects, Vinhomes Apollo City and Wonder City, and will soon open for sale Phuoc Vinh Tay and Duong Kinh projects.
Nam Long Group has also recently signed a cooperation agreement with 17 Waterpoint project distributors, and at the same time provided training sessions to prepare for the launch of the Izumi City project in the second half of 2025, in addition to continuing to implement the Akari City and Central Lake projects.
In enterprises that have been congested in inventories for many years such as Dat Xanh Group, there have been recent positive signals in legal progress and project implementation. With the restart of the Gem Riverside project (HCMC), Dat Xanh sets a sales target for this year and expects to achieve a good absorption rate. Similarly, Khang Dien plans to open for sale the Foresta project in Thu Duc City, including 226 low-rise apartments and 600 high-rise apartments, combined from the 2 Clarita and Emeria projects.
It can be seen that the real estate market has passed the most difficult period. However, the market is still witnessing strong differentiation between businesses. And the recovery does not mean that the market is having good liquidity. In particular, the inventory of projects and real estate enterprises is still very high.
More than 50% of real estate businesses are having negative cash flow, including large businesses. This shows that the sales capacity of businesses is still not really good, and the cash flow to repay debts to banks is also unstable.
Meanwhile, the story of accessing cash flow for debt restructuring, adding new capital sources in addition to competitive pressure for outstanding liquidity is still a big problem for real estate businesses.
Statistics from VIS Rating for the 30 largest listed real estate investors by revenue show that total debt by the end of 2024 increased by 20% compared to the same period in 2023, to VND208,000 billion, mostly to finance project development costs, adding mobilized capital or restructuring maturing debt. This increase in debt led to a 41% increase in interest expenses over the past year.
In addition, it is estimated that in 2025, there will be about VND 110,000 billion of maturing real estate bonds, of which VND 31,000 billion has been late in paying principal and interest before. These are debts that have been extended and postponed according to Decree No. 08/2023/ND-CP, and this year they must be settled as a problem that businesses must consider.
Real estate businesses are currently very hopeful that new policies to remove legal obstacles and promote planning completion will create momentum for project development in 2025, thereby helping businesses have more resources to solve financial problems.
Experts say that in the coming time, the absorption rate of newly opened real estate projects may be concentrated in the second and third quarters of 2025. Currently, many banks are implementing home loans with preferential interest rates, targeting young customers under the age of 35, hoping to help increase real estate liquidity because customers can easily access capital.
At the recently published report, MB Securities (MBS) said that real estate and industrial parks are a group that can witness the profit in the first quarter of this year's prominent growth compared to the market. MBS estimates that listed real estate businesses can raise interest by 719% compared to the first quarter of 2024, while the industrial park group increases by over 60%. In particular, Vinhomes - the largest real estate developer in the market - can raise interest by nearly 740% from the same level of the same period last year and record profits from the project series such as Royal Island, Ocean Park 2 and 3, Grand Park, Golden Avenue. The securities company also expected to launch the profits of Nam Long and Khang Dien both growth of over 200%.
