In this morning's trading session (July 3), the stock market received information about US President Donald Trump's announcement on social media about reaching a trade agreement with Vietnam. However, the general reaction of the domestic stock market this morning was optimistic but still cautious.
The VN-Index accordingly fluctuated slightly around the reference when the bluechip group still had a slight majority fluctuation, although green dominated. The positive point is that cash flow has shown signs of significant improvement, when the trading value reached more than VND10,000 billion after more than 1 hour of trading.
Market momentum continued to be boosted in the second half of the session, as green continued to expand on the electronic board, along with strong cash flow, helping the VN-Index increase by 7.19 points, to 1,391.78 points.
Total trading volume reached more than 685.5 million units, worth VND 15,872.4 billion, double the value and 90% of the value compared to yesterday morning's session. Bluechip stocks mostly increase
Analysts from Maybank Securities Company (MSVN) have just released an updated report on the event of the US and Vietnam reaching a tariff agreement. MSVN believes that this is a relatively positive result for Vietnam, especially in the current context and the transition period provided.
MSVN assessed this as a successful negotiation result. Like businesses, Vietnam benefits from minimizing transition risks and having time to restructure economic growth momentum towards high quality, diversification and sustainability, in line with the orientation in Resolution 57 (technology and innovation), Resolution 59 (global integration) and Resolution 68 (developing the private sector).
For the stock market, MSVN experts said that the announcement of the deal has eliminated a large source of uncertainty for both investors and businesses. Market sentiment will gradually improve as details are clarified. Nike shares increased by 4% last night, reflecting confidence in the supply chain located in Vietnam (50% of Nike's shoe output and 30% of Nike's garment output manufactured in Vietnam).
According to MSVN's forecast, profit growth in the financial year 2025 will reach 15.1% over the same period, supported by a durable export industry and strong domestic demand. MSVN's VN-Index target is 1,500 points.
In addition to the tariff story, according to experts from Yuanta Securities Company, an important factor dominating the market in the third quarter is the expectation of market upgrading. In terms of criteria, Vietnam is close to eligibility for upgrading. However, the final decision depends on determination factors, for example, FTSE Russell can survey large investment funds - which are their customers - to assess the Vietnamese market. On the other hand, the upgrade only has a positive psychological impact, creating momentum for the market, and cannot be expected to bring capital flow of tens of billions of USD in a short time.
Yuanta experts believe that the driving force to support the market in the third quarter will come more from domestic factors. The Government's failure to maintain the 2025 GDP growth target at 8% despite macro and geopolitical difficulties shows great expectations for the internal strength of the economy.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DG Capital - commented that a positive result on tariffs can open a long-term growth cycle, not simply a technical recovery in a few sessions. Currently, investors should not rush to disburse all or use leverage. When the policy picture becomes clear, investors can completely proactively and strongly expand their positions in export industry groups while still promptly seizing opportunities.
