Statistics show that the supply of newly opened apartments for the whole year of 2024 is estimated to reach about 35,000 units, higher than the previous forecast of about 22,000 to 24,000 units.
By 2025, this number is forecast to increase to 40,000 apartments for both major markets, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
However, the shortage of affordable housing is unlikely to improve. Research units said that the mid-range to high-end product segment may continue to account for the majority of supply.
If the imbalance in housing supply continues without timely intervention, the market will face many consequences. Among them, housing prices will be beyond the reach of most people, further increasing inequality in access to housing.
Although supply will increase significantly, real estate prices are forecast to still be difficult to "cool down".
Market research firm CBRE believes that housing prices will not decrease but will no longer increase as rapidly as in the recent period. Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam Association of Realtors, real estate prices are said to have "stagnated" but are unlikely to decrease.
According to Lao Dong reporters, only for real estate properties, especially apartments, that have been occupied for many years, within the past month, some owners have had to slightly reduce prices to find customers. As for new projects, investors are still offering quite high prices.
Forecasting the real estate market in 2025, Ms. Duong Thuy Dung - CEO of CBRE Vietnam - said that housing prices will not decrease but the growth rate will slow down, only about 5 - 8% compared to 2024.
Many real estate experts predict that new apartments priced under 50 million VND/m2 in Hanoi will disappear.
Ms. Do Thu Hang - Senior Director of Consulting and Research Department of Savills Hanoi - said that the resolution of legal problems is gradually improving, opening up opportunities for new projects to be implemented.
However, this process will not happen quickly but slowly and it is difficult to immediately meet the diverse needs of products in the market.
Another reason, according to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh - Vice President of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), is the new land price list. "The selling price cannot cool down, it is difficult to "stay the same" but can continue to increase partly because of the large investment demand, the high cost of land tax according to the new price list" - Mr. Khanh said.
Accordingly, localities applying new land price lists based on market prices may create higher costs, making it difficult for real estate prices to decrease, even when supply increases.
To solve the problem of rising housing prices, VARS proposes that, in addition to continuing to research and apply preferential policies on land and loans for social housing projects and affordable commercial housing, the State needs to continue to promote the improvement of connecting infrastructure, "replicating" urban development according to the TOD model - an urban development model focusing on public transport.
At that time, home buyers will certainly be willing to move to suburban areas, where businesses can develop projects at lower prices.
