Since the beginning of 2023, the Vietnamese real estate (RE) market has begun to record a recovery in supply after a period of prolonged decline since 2018. According to research data from the Vietnam Real Estate Market Assessment Research Institute (VARS IRE), total supply has increased from more than 40,000 products in 2022 to about 128,000 new products in 2025, an increase of about 88% compared to 2024 and the highest level in the 2019-2025 period.
The recovery of supply along with favorable macroeconomic conditions such as low interest rates and abundant cash flow further fueled the need to "squeeze" in the previous period of scarcity into money, causing real estate prices to continuously increase and set a new level. Many investors recorded impressive profits, even doubling the value of assets in just 1-2 years.
In particular, in the third quarter of 2025, apartment prices in some areas increased by about 500 million to 1 billion VND per unit, creating a wave of "quick cash outage and short-term profit expectations". Projects opened for sale "goods are sold out", even price difference transactions to own products are common.
However, from the end of 2025, the market began to shift when supply improved significantly. A series of projects that were once stalled were legally resolved thanks to policy adjustments, along with more than 20 large-scale projects approved and newly implemented, mainly in suburban areas associated with key transport infrastructure.
Supply not only increased in quantity but also upgraded in quality, with the appearance of integrated urban areas, synchronous utilities. Increased supply helps buyers have more choices, from segments, regions to product types. Even, thanks to flexible sales policies such as extending payment schedules, interest rate support, buyers can participate in the market with an initial capital ratio of only about 10-30% of product value.
However, in the context of rapid interest rate increases in a short time, market sentiment becomes more cautious. Liquidity is no longer spread out but switches to a selective state, clearly reflecting the trend of cash flow differentiation.
Although liquidity has slowed down, the real estate price level has not decreased deeply due to the pressure of input costs still maintained at a high level. Land costs currently account for about 30-40% of total project development costs and tend to increase sharply according to the new land price list.
With this structure, when land prices increase by about 20%, land use fees are calculated using the adjustment coefficient K (K>1), project development costs can increase by at least 6-8%. Even many projects resumed after a long period of "blanketing" have to pay land use fees 1.5-3 times higher.
In addition, construction costs have increased by about 8-12%, along with increased financial costs due to interest rates increasing by about 2%, causing the total project development costs to increase by about 1.6-2.7%. This reality forces investors to adjust selling prices up even though liquidity pressure is increasing.
In case the sales progress does not meet the plan, financial costs will continue to increase, increasing risks and cash flow pressure on businesses. In that context, many investors have proactively applied demand stimulus policies such as preferential interest rates (fixed or ceiling), extending support time or increasing discounts for early payment plans to attract money.
VARS IRE believes that in the context of having many choices, investors' market approach needs to change towards being more substantive. The evaluation of a "cheap" or "expensive" product should not be based on the selling price, but should be placed in relation to the regional level, cash flow exploitation capacity and return on investment time. The market is no longer suitable for short-term investment strategies, but requires medium and long-term vision, associated with actual utility value and financial efficiency.
Therefore, investors should prioritize products that have the ability to generate cash flow, located in areas with clear connecting infrastructure, transparent legality and developed by reputable investors. At the same time, it is necessary to limit the use of high financial leverage and determine a long enough investment strategy. For projects formed in the future, the holding period should be determined to be at least 3-5 years, until the project is completed and put into operation.
