According to data from the One Mount Group Market Research and Customer Understanding Center, the Hanoi real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 only reached about 19,500 transactions, down 7% compared to the same period last year and 48% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. The decline appeared in most types of real estate.
This development shows that the market is not only short-term affected by seasonal factors, but the recovery internal strength and market absorption capacity are also clearly weakening compared to the bustling period of 2025.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien - Director of One Mount Group Market Research and Customer Understanding Center commented: "Investors currently tend to extend the observation time, prioritize cash flow management and wait for more stable signals from interest rates, macroeconomics as well as price levels before making a decision to spend money.
A customer survey conducted by One Mount Group in Q1/2026 shows that about 36% of customers maintain a clear demand for real estate - including the "considering" and "preparing to buy" groups, a sharp decrease compared to 55% in 2025.
Notably, only about 17% of customers plan to buy real estate in the next 6 months, while up to 41% choose to buy in the next year or so. This shows that buyers are tending to extend decision-making time and be more cautious with short-term investment plans.
Also according to the survey, real estate is still the top priority investment channel, with 58% of customers participating in choosing in all investment channels. This shows that confidence in the growth potential of real estate in the medium and long term has not decreased. However, compared to the most recent survey conducted last year, when the market was vibrant, this rate has decreased by about 13 percentage points.
The main reason for the decline in real estate demand comes from increasing financial pressure. Most customers believe that the current price level has increased significantly faster than the rate of income growth, making access to housing more difficult.
In addition, loan interest rates remain high while the market still contains many risks from macroeconomics and geopolitics. This makes even groups of customers with good financial capacity become more cautious about using leverage to invest in real estate in the short term.
According to forecasts by One Mount Group, the Hanoi transfer market in 2026 will still maintain significant liquidity, although the trend of differentiation will be clearer between regions and product types.
In the secondary apartment segment, the total transaction volume is expected to reach about 33,000 units. Meanwhile, the residential land segment is forecast to reach about 30,500 transactions in 2026. Liquidity will continue to differentiate strongly by region, depending on the price level, infrastructure quality and transparency of planning information.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien commented: "In 2026, Hanoi's real estate demand will not explode as last year, the short-term investment group will decrease sharply and the group with real housing needs and long-term investment and assets will be the main customer group. For this customer group, transferred apartments continue to have an advantage thanks to reasonable prices, clear products and immediate usability. The market is entering a stronger selection phase, where products that meet real housing needs, have clear legal status and reasonable prices will maintain better liquidity than the rest of the market.
