10 consecutive wins. 10 consecutive wins at Villa Park. 10 years since Leicester City did the unbelievable. The question then arises: has Aston Villa's title race really begun?
"We feel we can win every game," Morgan Rogers said after the win over Manchester United, Villa's favorite opponent in the past. However, the "Red Devils" have now been defeated by them in 5 of their last 6 encounters, with a draw, even during a period when the team was still facing many fluctuations.
It was an iconic result for Aston Villa and could be the launching pad for a memorable season. However, the present moment also marks the most important turning point for coach Unai Emery's team.
Despite their good form, the next two matches will really shape whether this season will be a special one or not. They will visit Chelsea, then Arsenal, in just 3 days. Both were top-flight matches, making Villa the focus of the Premier League.
More importantly, these are not only confrontations with teams in the "Big Six" group, but also a measure of Villa's ambition - a team that is gradually challenging the old order of the tournament. If they can get through this stage, the question of their championship race will no longer be a doubt.
However, these are all harsh challenges in the context of Aston Villa's away form not really commensurate with the results achieved. Emery's side have been behind in each of their last five Premier League away games, and have come back to win their last three.
That becomes even more worrying as Villa are about to face two opponents who will find it difficult to allow mistakes to recur if they continue to start slowly. For Chelsea, their best performances this season have come against strong teams, clearly demonstrated by the 5 consecutive points won against Barcelona and Arsenal.
Three days later, Villa will face another big test against Mikel Arteta's Arsenal, who are on a nine-match winning streak at the Emirates. So far, only four Arsenal players have scored at home in 12 games in all competitions. Therefore, if Villa continue to start slowly, the possibility of them having a chance to correct their mistakes against the best defense in the league is very low.
All of that data reinforces an important point of view: although Emery's recent results have been impressive, the quality of their actual performances still needs to be assessed more carefully. The question is whether Villa are really playing well, or are they just winning thanks to efficiency?
Statistics show that skepticism is well-founded. In their last 10 Premier League games, where Villa won nine, they have only overcome their opponents in terms of expected goals (xG) once. And that was against bottom-placed Wolves. This conclusion does not change even when rounding up the xG of each team.
Another interesting statistic is that if the matches are decided by xG, Villa will be 15th in the Premier League rankings.
Finally, the core question remains: what is the sign of a champion? Is it the ability to play unconvincingly but still win, or requires a sustainable, quality playing style to maintain long-term success?
