Manchester United have played poorly in the Premier League in the 2024-2025 season, but they are getting closer to the Europa League final without losing a single match.
Man United will certainly break the record for the lowest achievement in the Premier League in the club's history. However, the "Red Devils" can still win not only one title, but also a place in the Champions League next season.
Ruben Amorim is aiming to become the first manager to reach the European Cup final in his first season leading an English club, since Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in the 2020-21 Champions League. Jose Mourinho, in the 2016-2017 Europa League, is the only United manager to have achieved this before.
Amorim's side have yet to officially qualify for the final, but they have set one foot in a 3-0 win last week in Spain. Athletic Bilbao must hope for a miraculous comeback at Old Trafford if they do not want to miss the final at home.
Man United's victory over Bilbao surprised many when they defeated one of the strongest teams in La Liga. Bilbao's success under Ernesto Valverde this season has been built on a solid foundation. They have conceded just 26 goals in La Liga 2024-25. This is their lowest tally ever after 34 games in a La Liga season.
No team in La Liga has conceded fewer goals than Bilbao this season, while only Atletico Madrid (31.5) have a lower expected goals conceded than them (33.2).
However, the goals of Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes (double) in the first leg helped Man United gain control of this match.
Fernandes will be an indispensable part of Man United's attack. He has created 145 chances in all competitions this season, while only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than the Portuguese.
Despite struggling in the bottom half of the Premier League table, the "Red Devils" are still unbeaten in 13 matches in the Europa League this season (8 wins, 5 draws). They could become the seventh team to reach the final of the tournament without losing a single match. Benfica (2013-2014), Chelsea (2018-2019), Inter Milan (2019-2020), Villarreal (2020-2021), Eintracht Frankfurt (2021-2022) and Bayer Leverkusen (2023-2024) are other teams that have achieved this.
In fact, Man United have lost just one of their last 30 home games in the Europa League (W23 D6). That was a 1-0 group stage loss to Real Sociedad in September 2022. Currently, they have to lose by at least 3 goals to be eliminated, a result that has never happened to Man United at home in the European Cup.
Therefore, this is a difficult task for Athletic Bilbao, who are trying to avoid losing both of their third European knockout matches.
Head-to-head record
Of all major European competitions, only one team has won the away match by 3 goals or more and cannot advance. That was Maccabi Tel Aviv against Olympiakos in the round of 16 of the Europa Conference League 2023-2024 (4-1 away win, 1-6 home loss after extra time).
In the previous 5 matches between Man United and Athletic Bilbao, there were 22 goals (an average of 4.4 goals/match), of which the "Red Devils" scored 12 goals and conceded 10 goals. All five of those games saw at least three goals scored.
Athletic Bilbao have lost 7 of their last 9 away matches against English teams in all European competitions (won 1, drew 1). However, their most recent match was a 3-2 win over Man United in the Europa League in March 2012.
Score prediction
According to Opta, Man United have a 45.2% chance of winning in the second leg, while Athletic Bilbao have a 27.9% chance of winning. The remaining 26.9% is a draw.
When considering the possibility of reaching the final, Man United is rated at 98%. And they are also favourites to beat Tottenham or Bodo/Glimt in Bilbao.
Predicted result: Man United 2-2 Athletic Bilbao
The match between Man United and Athletic Bilbao takes place at 2:00 am on May 9 (Vietnam time).
