Overview
Atletico Madrid may be in a 5-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, but they will certainly still regret the 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad at Reale Arena.
Alexander Sorloth opened the score in the 50th minute against his old team, but his fifth goal in La Liga this season was quickly equalized by Goncalo Guedes. The draw forced Atletico to accept a draw, continuing to rank fourth and 11 points behind the leading team Barcelona.
With that gap, the realistic hope for Atletico to win the La Liga title for the first time since the 2020-2021 season is considered to have been eroded when the season enters the mid-season. This means the Spanish Super Cup, the King's Cup and the Champions League will become viable if they want to end the 5-year title drought.
Atletico won a ticket to the Super Cup thanks to finishing third last season and will go to Saudi Arabia with the goal of raising the cup for the third time in history, after being crowned in 1985 and 2014.
However, in the four-team format, Diego Simeone's team has only won 1/3 of the semi-finals. The only victory came in 2020 when they defeated Barcelona 3-2, before collapsing against Real Madrid on penalties in the final.
Since then, Atletico Madrid have lost to Athletic Bilbao (2022) and Real Madrid (2024) in the semi-finals, showing that the road to meet Barcelona or Athletic Bilbao in this weekend's match will not be easy at all.
However, Los Colchoneros can cling to memories from the most recent Madrid derby in September, when Julian Alvarez scored a double in an impressive 5-2 victory over Real Madrid at Metropolitano. This is the first time Atletico has scored 5 goals against their city rivals in nearly 75 years.
In the opposite direction, coach Xabi Alonso somewhat reduced the pressure with a 4-game winning streak, including crushing Real Betis 5-1 at home, despite missing Kylian Mbappe due to injury.
In the context of Mbappe's absence, Gonzalo Garcia became the biggest highlight. He scored with his right foot, left foot and header to become the youngest player to score a "perfect hat-trick" in La Liga in the 21st century, at the age of 21 and 286 days old.
Raul Asencio and Fran Garcia also scored, helping Real Madrid have their eighth home win after 9 matches in La Liga, thereby narrowing the gap with Barcelona to 4 points after the leading team won Espanyol 2-0.
This week, Alonso has the opportunity to consolidate his position in the Real Madrid hot seat, knowing that with just 2 wins he will have his first title since taking over the team from Carlo Ancelotti at the end of last season.
Real Madrid has won 3/6 seasons since applying the four-team format, most recently in 2024. They beat Atletico 5-3 in extra time before crushing Barcelona 4-1 in the final.
In fact, Real has only failed to reach the final once in a four-team format, which was a 1-2 defeat to Athletic Bilbao in Malaga in the 2021 Super Cup without a spectator.
However, Real Madrid also has reason to be wary. They have only won against Atletico in official matches in exactly 1/7 of their most recent encounters.
Personnel situation
Atletico Madrid continues to be without the services of Clement Lenglet and Nicolas Gonzalez. This duo will stay in Spain to complete the injury recovery process.
Pablo Barrios's ability to play is also questioned. This midfielder is likely to be absent from the semi-finals. Conor Gallagher, who replaced Barrios at Reale Arena, may be given a starting spot alongside Koke in the center of midfield.
On the other side, Real Madrid will continue to be without Mbappe. The French striker stays in Madrid to recover from a knee injury that caused him to miss the victory against Real Betis.
Eder Militao is also not on the tournament list due to a hamstring injury, while Brahim Diaz is still on duty at the African Cup.
Notably, right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold has been called up, but his fitness condition is still a question mark.
Expected lineup:
Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena, Sorloth, Alvarez.
Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius, Garcia.
The match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid takes place at 2:00 AM on January 9th (Vietnam time).
