U23 Vietnam cannot meet U23 Thailand in the semi-finals
Group A of the 2025 U23 Southeast Asian Championship has ended. U23 Indonesia is the first team to qualify for the semi-finals with the top spot in the group and the second place belongs to U23 Philippines.
Because this group has 4 participating teams - 1 team more than Group B and C, when comparing the results with the second-placed team of the remaining 2 groups, U23 Philippines will not be considered for a 2-0 victory over U23 Brunei ( group stage). Thus, U23 Philippines has 3 points (coefficient +1) when comparing their achievements.
Currently, in Group B, U23 Vietnam is leading with 3 points (number factor +3). The opponent of coach Kim Sang-sik and his team in the final round is U23 Cambodia - a team that still has hope to continue when it has 1 point (No goal difference). Similarly, in Group C, U23 Thailand also took the top spot with 3 points (number coefficient +4). Following is U23 Myanmar with 1 point (number 0).
In case U23 Vietnam and U23 Thailand do not lose to U23 Cambodia or U23 Myanmar, U23 Philippines will qualify for the semi-finals as the second team with the best results.
At this time, based on the branch scenario, U23 Vietnam, as the first team in Group B (if not lost to Cambodia), will meet the best second team, the Philippines, in the semi-finals. Meanwhile, U23 Indonesia will face U23 Thailand in the remaining semi-final match.
In another case, if U23 Vietnam loses to U23 Cambodia and loses the top spot, Khuat Van Khang and his teammates can still enter the semi-finals as the best second-placed team. At that time, U23 Vietnam will meet U23 Indonesia, while U23 Cambodia will compete with U23 Thailand.
U23 Vietnam cannot face U23 Thailand in the semi-finals. Even in the scenario of branching, the two teams can meet when they are simultaneously satisfied with 2 conditions: One is to both top Group B and C; two is 1 of 2 second-placed teams in Group B or C to qualify for the next round.
However, based on the current situation, Vietnam and Thailand will top the group if they do not lose in the final round. This means that Cambodia and Myanmar have only reached a maximum of 2 final points - unable to enter the semi-finals because this score is lower than the second team in Group A, U23 Philippines (3 points).
In addition, U23 Vietnam may also meet U23 Myanmar in the knockout round. This case occurred when Mr. Kim's team won Group B, while U23 Myanmar beat U23 Thailand to take the lead in Group C. U23 Thailand, although finishing 2nd, still qualified for the next round.
Calculations
U23 Vietnam will meet one of three teams, U23 Indonesia, U23 Philippines and U23 Myanmar in the semi-finals. In case they do not lose to U23 Cambodia, coach Kim Sang-sik and his team will face U23 Philippines or U23 Myanmar.
On the contrary, if they lose to U23 Cambodia but still continue, Quoc Viet and his teammates will face host U23 Indonesia.
Considering the correlation of the above opponent, U23 Indonesia is the strongest. With the goal of reaching the championship match, U23 Vietnam of course wants to meet an easier opponent in the semi-finals, the Philippines or Myanmar. Therefore, U23 Vietnam aims for at least 1 point against Cambodia in the final round of the group stage.
The "Golden Star Young Warriors" also had another reason to beat Cambodia. On the one hand, Mr. Kim wants his students to play more convincingly than in the win over Laos U23. On the other hand, the Korean coach asked the whole team to continue to maintain stability in mentality and competitive spirit. Thereby, the team was given more confidence before entering the semi-finals of the tournament.
If they only meet U23 Philippines or U23 Myanmar in the semi-finals, U23 Vietnam can easily rotate their forces compared to when meeting Indonesia. The pillars do not have to struggle to play 3 consecutive matches. Depending on the developments and results, Mr. Kim will adjust the personnel appropriately to avoid the players being exhausted if they reach the final.
