Elimination in labor-intensive industries
According to the Hanoi Employment Service Center, actual surveys in some industrial parks in the area show that the strongest human resource elimination is still concentrated in traditional labor-intensive industries such as textiles, garments, footwear, wood processing and low-grade electronic component assembly.
By 2026, when the standards for "green factories" and automation become mandatory requirements from international partners, businesses that are slow to transform will be forced to cut working hours and stop auxiliary shifts to maintain existence," said Mr. Vu Quang Thanh - Deputy Director in charge of the Hanoi Employment Service Center.
Also according to Mr. Thanh, currently the real estate and civil construction industries also record high unemployment rates. After the boom period, the sluggishness of the housing market has caused construction teams and freelancers at the construction site to only work intermittently for 3-4 days/week, instead of "overtime" continuously as before.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Lan Huong - former Director of the Institute of Labor Science and Social Affairs, said that behind the figure of 786,700 people of working age falling into unemployment is not only a simple supply-demand fluctuation, but also a "cleansing" taking place in traditional industry groups and the difficult shift of middle-aged workers. Unlike complete unemployment, unemployment is a situation where workers still have jobs but working hours are lower than regulations and they have extra work needs but do not have a source of work.
35-45 years old, high risk of unemployment
Ms. Lan Huong raised an alarming point in the first quarter of 2026, which is the concentration of the group of people who are unemployed and lose their jobs the most, falling into the age group from 35-45.
Ms. Huong called this a group of workers "stuck in the middle of the line". "They are the people with the largest family burden (children of school age, elderly parents) but have the largest delay in digital skills. This age group has a high seniority salary but labor productivity is difficult to compete with the endurance of young people or the accuracy of AI machines. If they have to lay off or cut staff, businesses will think of them first," Ms. Huong said.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Le Quang Trung - former Deputy Director in charge of the Department of Employment said: "At FDI enterprises, when it is necessary to restructure to bring robots into the production line, workers over 35 years old are often the first subjects to be included in the area of working hours reduction or contract termination agreements. They are too old to start over from scratch in a high-tech industry, but too young to retire.
Mr. Trung assessed that the increase in the number of unemployed people also reflects a shift to a temporary economy when many workers who were laid off from factories have flocked to the streets to work as technology drivers or delivery personnel.
To have a "football", in case of job loss for the 35-45 age group, Mr. Trung gave 3 key recommendations.
Personalizing retraining: It is necessary to open "chamber" skills training classes specifically for the 35+ age group. Instead of teaching general office informatics, teach them how to operate automatic machines or sales skills on digital platforms.
Stimulating service demand and local infrastructure: To solve the unemployment gap in rural and suburban areas, it is necessary to promote medium and small-scale infrastructure projects in localities. Creating "on-the-spot" jobs will help workers not have to leave their hometowns, reducing pressure on large cities that are oversupplied with unskilled labor.
Completing the multi-layered social security network: Unemployment insurance needs to be reformed in a more flexible direction. Not only paying money when losing work, this fund needs to proactively pay for training costs when workers are at risk of unemployment, helping them "prevent illness more than cure illness".
