Accordingly, global smartphone sales are expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year in 2025. Apple's smartphone sales have grown strongly throughout 2025, especially in the third quarter. Counterpoint forecasts that the brand's sales will reach a global market share of 19.4% by 2025, making Apple the world's No. 1 smartphone original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for the first time since 2011.
Samsung's sales are also expected to grow 4.6% year-on-year and reach a global market share of 18.7%, but the company will lose the leadership it has held for more than a decade.
iPhone sales in the third quarter of 2025 have exceeded expectations, achieving a solid growth of 9% over the same period last year. The launch of the iPhone 17 series marks a change in Apple's regular product line, with the new iPhone Air replacing the Plus model, along with adjustments to memory cau hinh and price.
According to Counterpoint, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the US, including the iPhone Air, in the first four weeks after its launch, were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, iPhone 17 sales in the same period were 18% higher than the previous generation, although the Air model was not included in the initial launch. In Japan, iPhone 17 sales in the first four weeks were 7% higher than the previous generation.
Commenting on Apple's optimistic outlook, senior analyst Yang Wang said: "In addition to the positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the main driver of the upgraded sales outlook is the fact that the phone replacement cycle has reached the downward point.
Consumers who have purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now entering the upgrade phase. In addition, 358 million used iPhones were sold from 2023 to the second quarter of 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will create a significant demand basis, expected to maintain iPhone sales growth in the following quarters.
Apple is on track to launch the iPhone 17e, a successor to the iPhone 16e and the second model in the "e" series, in the first half of 2026. The company also plans to release its first foldable iPhone later that year, while the first foldable iPhone is expected to launch in late 2027.
With factory sales recovering and even foldable phones with higher prices being launched, Apple is also expected to remain the leading revenue contributor in the global smartphone market until the end of this decade.
Meanwhile, Samsung is expected to achieve nearly 5% sales growth in 2025, supported by a flexible supply chain that has absorbed most of the impact of tariffs. The Korean company maintained its growth momentum in some key markets such as India, Southeast Asia (SEA) and the Middle East and Africa (MEA).
In developed markets, the ongoing trend of premiumization, combined with fundamental stability factors in North America, Europe and East Asia, will help Samsung protect its market share in the next few years. However, despite these positive drivers, Samsung is still predicted not to regain its leading global OEM position from 2025 to 2029 as the mid-range - low-end segment faces increasing competition from Chinese OEMs.
