After the sharp drop of more than 200 points of the VN-Index recently after peaking at the threshold of 1,900 points, the general psychology of the market began to show positive expectations for a new valuation bottom. In strategic reports, many securities companies share the view that the current low valuation zone combined with the expectation of profit growth of listed companies will open up opportunities to select very good stocks for the second half of the year.
However, reality is showing a different picture. To confirm that the stock market will enter a recovery cycle after a deep discount, liquidity is a signal that the market is observing carefully. However, statistics show that by the end of the second quarter of 2026, the total number of personal accounts reached a record 13.35 million, with this quarter alone increasing by 767,663 accounts, but the average order-matching transaction liquidity decreased by 30% compared to the previous quarter, and the amount of money waiting on stock accounts fell to the bottom of 6 quarters. The convenience of technology only creates nominal growth in the "number" of accounts, while actual cash flow has been pumped back into the banking system or in low-risk fixed income assets.
Deposit interest rates in many banks have exceeded 9%/year, even up to 10%, lending interest rates have also increased sharply, causing capital usage costs for both businesses and investors to increase. Businesses are under pressure from large financial costs, while cash flow invested in securities is being competed by deposit channels and bonds with more attractive yields. These are the reasons for the decline in stock market liquidity.
Besides, there is a paradox that although liquidity is at an alarmingly low level, margin debt in securities companies in the second quarter of 2026 still maintained increase, even peaking.
Commenting on this issue, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Financial Investment Analysis at DG Capital, said that if only looking at the numbers, this is indeed a paradox. However, liquidity reflects the level of daily transactions, while margin balance reflects the scale of capital that investors are using to hold stocks. Therefore, decreasing liquidity does not mean margin must decrease.
In the past nearly two years, domestic cash flow has become the main force absorbing a very large net selling volume of foreign investors. To maintain this demand, domestic investors have used more financial leverage, causing the total market margin balance to increase to a record level.
Investors should not only look at high margin figures as a positive signal. When leverage is at a large level, the space for domestic cash flow to continue to absorb selling pressure from foreign investors will gradually narrow. If the market wants to enter a sustainable upward trend, it still needs the improvement of natural liquidity, organized cash flow and the return of foreign investors, instead of just relying on margin," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
Real order-matching liquidity on the trading floor must escape the state of disappearance, and record a clear recovery in volume. This recovery must be accompanied by real cash flow participating in the stock buying and selling trading cycle.
The change in the quality of liquidity cannot be separated from the problem of the opportunity cost of cash flow. The decisive signal to activate cash flow to return is the clear cooling down of the savings deposit interest rate level at commercial banks. Although the current P/E valuation at 11.32 times is already "cheap" compared to the past 5 years, when placed next to the opportunity cost of the savings interest rate of 8-9%, this valuation range has actually not created a safe margin large enough to activate large cash flows to abandon the banking defense channel to return to the stock exchange.
