The Vietnamese stock market has just experienced a week of strong fluctuations. Market liquidity decreased sharply to a lower level than similar adjustments before, showing that cash flow still maintains a cautious attitude and defensive sentiment continues to prevail in the market.
And there is a paradox that although liquidity is at an alarmingly low level, margin debt in securities companies in the second quarter of 2026 still maintained increase, even peaking.
At the end of the second quarter of 2026, the total market margin balance is estimated at about 43.5 trillion VND, an increase of about 30,000 billion VND compared to the end of the first quarter of 2026 and setting a historical high. A noteworthy point is that the increase in outstanding debt has a large contribution from the group of securities companies backed by banks.
Statistics of Top 20 securities companies leading in terms of loan balance scale at the end of Q2/2026, 9 companies with bank support brought VND 18,700 billion out of a total of VND 30,000 billion of outstanding debt increased compared to the end of Q1/2026, equivalent to a proportion of 62%.
In that context, the liquidity of the stock market shows signs of "suffering".From mid-2025 to now, order matching liquidity on HOSE has shown a clear downward trend.The average order matching transaction value on HOSE is only about VND 13,000 - 14,000 billion per session, down more than half compared to the level of around VND 30,000 billion in Q3/2025 last year.
The main reason for the above phenomenon, according to experts, is that loan capital flows tend to focus on some stock groups, customers or large-scale transactions. When margin focuses on some large accounts, the total market balance still increases, but cash flow does not spread to the rest of the market, which means that securities credit capital does not completely transform into a wide trading cycle on the exchange.
Furthermore, in the period when the market is sideways or decreasing, investors tend to use margin to maintain positions or average prices instead of trading continuously. This causes the money turnover to decrease, while outstanding debt is still high and loan interest costs continue to accumulate.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Investment Analysis Department of DG Capital, said that a significant amount of margin has been used for organizations, business leaders, and major shareholders to use for other purposes. The easy point to see is that this phenomenon mainly occurs on securities companies backed by banks.
This is consistent with the "commodity banking" trend that is strongly taking place in the securities company group. In the context of selective credit tightening, this is a mobilization channel that can address urgent capital needs for businesses or business owners with simple procedures and much looser levels of control.
Speaking about the current low liquidity of the stock market, Dr. Phuong said that it is due to waiting psychology. Many investors are holding shares with margin but limit buying and selling because they expect the market to stabilize soon.
What needs to be monitored is not only the margin scale, but also the margin ratio to equity of securities companies, the margin ratio to the free market capitalization value and the possibility of selling mortgages if the market continues to decline," Dr. Phuong stated his point of view.
A series of leaders and related people have been sold off shares by securities companies when the market adjusted recently.
FPT Securities Company announced that it has successfully sold 128,400 TCM shares of Mr. Nguyen Van Nghia - Member of the Board of Directors of Thanh Cong Textile - Investment - Trading Joint Stock Company in the session of July 24. The account being sold off occurred when TCM shares fell to the range of 17,300 VND/share, the lowest level since November 2020.
With DIG stock prices continuously plummeting to 10,300 VND/share, evaporating nearly 60% compared to the nearest peak to the lowest level since February 2023, it has led to pressure to release collateral for the family of DIC Group Chairman Nguyen Hung Cuong. According to the announcement, in just three sessions from July 21-23, Chairman Nguyen Hung Cuong was sold more than 11 million shares by securities companies, thereby reducing his ownership ratio from 5.09% to 3.69% of charter capital and no longer being a major shareholder.
Not stopping there, Ms. Le Thi Ha Thanh - Mr. Cuong's mother was also sold off more than 2 million shares, while Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen - Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of DIC Group, Mr. Cuong's younger sister, was sold off more than one million shares. In just a few days, the total number of DIG shares sold off by the Chairman's family has reached more than 14.3 million units.
