The market opened the trading session on September 21, the official day FTSE upgraded it to a fairly active emerging market when green color returned widely, the VN-Index recovered after the adjustment session at the end of last week. However, increased selling pressure in the bluechip stock group caused the VN-Index to move to a state of slight fluctuation when entering a continuous order matching session, then turned down.
Selling orders appeared in many important industry groups, with the main pressure coming from bluechip stocks, especially large code VIC. Selling pressure continued to increase in the afternoon session, at one point VN-Index decreased by nearly 30 points when a series of pillar stocks were heavily sold. However, before entering the ATC order matching session, bottom-fishing demand began to appear, helping the index significantly narrow downward momentum.
Closing the session on September 21, VN-Index decreased by nearly 16 points, equivalent to 0.88%, to 1,799 points. Market breadth leaned strongly towards the selling side with 205 declining stocks compared to 105 increasing stocks. Although bottom-fishing demand appeared at the end of the session, liquidity was still quite low. The whole market had only 655 million shares matched orders, equivalent to a total trading value of 17,242 billion VND.
Notably, after net buying sessions in the previous week, foreign investors turned to net selling of about 680 billion VND in the session of September 21. The stocks that were net sold the strongest by foreign investors include VIC about 291 billion VND, VHM 115 billion VND, FPT 66 billion VND, SSI 55 billion VND and SHB 49 billion VND.
By industry, the real estate group has the most negative impact on the overall index. VIC and VHM lost 2.6% and 4.1% respectively, causing the index to decrease by more than 15 points. This means the market is almost flat against the reference level if excluding fluctuations of these two codes. The securities stock group, which is forecast to benefit positively from market upgrades, also simultaneously reversed from increase to decrease. Pillar codes such as VND, VCK, VIX, VCI, SSI... also lost more than 2% compared to the reference level.
In the banking group, SSB shares of Southeast Asia Bank (SeABank) were profit-taken after a series of 7 strong increases. Last week, SSB continuously increased to the ceiling and reached the highest level in 3 years when FTSE Russell put the stock into the FTSE Global All Cap Index basket and VanEck Vietnam ETF added it to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index. However, after the restructuring, SSB lost all range to 22,450 VND/share and closed in a state of no buyers. The outstanding selling volume at the floor price in today's session reached nearly 2 million units.
ASEANSC Securities Company believes that the market does not have enough basis to confirm a new upward trend when the 1,830-1,840 point area is still a significant barrier. This week, VN-Index is likely to continue to fluctuate and differentiate in the 1,800-1,840 point area. What needs to be seen after the upgrade day is no longer the expectation, but whether foreign capital will continue to stay or not.
Most of the initial restructuring transactions took place before the effective date, so ASEANSC pays attention to the possibility of profit-taking in stocks that have increased sharply according to this story. Investors are recommended not to chase buying when VN-Index approaches 1,830-1,840 points, prioritizing accumulating good fundamental stocks in correction phases if the 1,800 point mark is still held.
Beta Securities Company (CTCK) still sees the market in a sideways state. The recent increase took place while capital flow related to upgrades and ETF funds moved strongly, causing the index fluctuation not to fully reflect the normal supply and demand state.
Beta Securities Company believes that this trading week will help the market reveal its true strength more clearly as structural impacts gradually pass, while factors such as interest rates and energy prices begin to reflect more in stock prices. Cash flow, liquidity and the possibility of foreign investors continuing to net buy will be important signals to determine whether a new trend is formed or not.
Instead of disbursing simultaneously, investors can prepare each buy scenario according to the price range of each stock. Investors should prioritize businesses with solid fundamentals, clear growth prospects and the ability to benefit from the macroeconomic environment, thereby keeping room for handling if the market continues to fluctuate.
