The VN-Index has just gone through two major "tests": the term expiration session of derivatives and the Fed's decision to raise interest rates without strong fluctuations. In the last session of the week on September 18, the index adjusted to around 1,815 points due to increased selling pressure in the banking group, while foreign investors reversed to net buy.
Overall for the past week, VN-Index increased by about 20 points, mainly thanks to the Vingroup group and banks. However, improved liquidity mainly came from restructuring sessions, while trading in the session did not show a clear breakthrough, reflecting that domestic cash flow is still leaning towards observation.
Notably, demand is still maintained quite proactively when VN-Index fluctuates and retreats to the support zone, helping the index maintain the 1,800-point mark. The market also stands firm before the end-of-term session of derivatives and the Fed's interest rate decision, showing that these factors have been partly reflected in the price. As ETF disbursement activities gradually cool down, the ability to maintain the recovery momentum will depend more on the return of domestic cash flow.
The reason is that almost all the news and biggest expectations have appeared in the week, from Fed interest rates to FTSE upgrades. When the upgrade story has become a reality, the market will lack new momentum.
Entering the new week, OCBS Securities Company (CTCK) assessed that as the effect from the story of upgrades is gradually reflected in prices, the stock market will need new catalysts to maintain the attractiveness of cash flow. The focus is likely to shift from the general story to the specific growth prospects of each industry and business.
OCBS believes that in the new trading week, VN-Index is likely to continue to move in the range of 1,820-1,860 points as the upgrade effect gradually subsides, while expectations for Q3/2026 business results become the focus. This will be a test for the current price level.
After the recovery period, the valuation in many stock groups is no longer low, meaning the market needs positive business results to strengthen expectations. Businesses that maintain revenue growth, profit and operating efficiency will have a basis to attract cash flow; conversely, cases where prices increase faster than the basic foundation may face adjustment pressure.
In that context, cash flow may gradually shift from "buying based on story" to "buying based on growth". Differentiation will depend not only on the industry group benefiting from policy, but also on asset quality, profit growth capacity and the level of reflection of price expectations.
Asean Securities Company believes that the VN-Index is operating in a cautious state when selling pressure prevailed in the session, causing the index to close at 1,816 points, although it still successfully maintained on the MA10 and MA20 lines to preserve the short-term trend. The market currently lacks clear breakthrough momentum and is likely to continue to struggle in a narrow range at the 1,810-1,840 point area before establishing a new trend.
In the context of supply and demand being in a fragile balance, short-term investors should maintain the proportion of stocks at an average level, avoid chasing purchases in recovery phases and focus on trading in the support and resistance zones, while prioritizing industry groups with their own support stories such as state capital divestment, market upgrades or private economic development policies and new oil and gas cycles.
Pinetree Securities Company believes that the biggest risk to watch is foreign capital flows. Most of the buying volume of ETF funds according to FTSE has been disbursed in the restructuring session, so foreign investors may return to net selling if exchange rate pressure increases when the Fed enters a tightening cycle. In addition, if Vingroup and bank stocks continue to weaken, the index may adjust deeper than expected. For investors holding stocks, they can take advantage of recovery sessions around the 1,820 point zone to partially take profits, reduce margin lending ratios, prioritize keeping stocks with good foundations and clear Q3 business results growth.
